The objective of this study is to examine the asymptotic behavior of Betti numbers of Čech complexes treated as stochastic processes and formed from random points in the d-dimensional Euclidean space ${\mathbb{R}}^d$ . We consider the case where the points of the Čech complex are generated by a Poisson process with intensity nf for a probability density f. We look at the cases where the behavior of the connectivity radius of the Čech complex causes simplices of dimension greater than $k+1$ to vanish in probability, the so-called sparse regime, as well when the connectivity radius is of the order of $n^{-1/d}$ , the critical regime. We establish limit theorems in the aforementioned regimes: central limit theorems for the sparse and critical regimes, and a Poisson limit theorem for the sparse regime. When the connectivity radius of the Čech complex is $o(n^{-1/d})$ , i.e. the sparse regime, we can decompose the limiting processes into a time-changed Brownian motion or a time-changed homogeneous Poisson process respectively. In the critical regime, the limiting process is a centered Gaussian process but has a much more complicated representation, because the Čech complex becomes highly connected with many topological holes of any dimension.

Both sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods (a.k.a. ‘particle filters’) and sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (sequential MCMC) methods constitute classes of algorithms which can be used to approximate expectations with respect to (a sequence of) probability distributions and their normalising constants. While SMC methods sample particles conditionally independently at each time step, sequential MCMC methods sample particles according to a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) kernel. Introduced over twenty years ago in [6], sequential MCMC methods have attracted renewed interest recently as they empirically outperform SMC methods in some applications. We establish an $\mathbb{L}_r$ -inequality (which implies a strong law of large numbers) and a central limit theorem for sequential MCMC methods and provide conditions under which errors can be controlled uniformly in time. In the context of state-space models, we also provide conditions under which sequential MCMC methods can indeed outperform standard SMC methods in terms of asymptotic variance of the corresponding Monte Carlo estimators.

We provide the first generic exact simulation algorithm for multivariate diffusions. Current exact sampling algorithms for diffusions require the existence of a transformation which can be used to reduce the sampling problem to the case of a constant diffusion matrix and a drift which is the gradient of some function. Such a transformation, called the Lamperti transformation, can be applied in general only in one dimension. So, completely different ideas are required for the exact sampling of generic multivariate diffusions. The development of these ideas is the main contribution of this paper. Our strategy combines techniques borrowed from the theory of rough paths, on the one hand, and multilevel Monte Carlo on the other.

We prove an almost sure central limit theorem on the Poisson space, which is perfectly tailored for stabilizing functionals arising in stochastic geometry. As a consequence, we provide almost sure central limit theorems for (i) the total edge length of the k-nearest neighbors random graph, (ii) the clique count in random geometric graphs, and (iii) the volume of the set approximation via the Poisson–Voronoi tessellation.

Polling systems are queueing systems consisting of multiple queues served by a single server. In this paper we analyze two types of preemptive time-limited polling systems, the so-called pure and exhaustive time-limited disciplines. In particular, we derive a direct relation for the evolution of the joint queue length during the course of a server visit. The analysis of the pure time-limited discipline builds on and extends several known results for the transient analysis of an M/G/1 queue. For the analysis of the exhaustive discipline we derive several new results for the transient analysis of the M/G/1 queue during a busy period. The final expressions for both types of polling systems that we obtain generalize previous results by incorporating customer routeing, generalized service times, batch arrivals, and Markovian polling of the server.

An important problem in modeling networks is how to generate a randomly sampled graph with given degrees. A popular model is the configuration model, a network with assigned degrees and random connections. The erased configuration model is obtained when self-loops and multiple edges in the configuration model are removed. We prove an upper bound for the number of such erased edges for regularly-varying degree distributions with infinite variance, and use this result to prove central limit theorems for Pearson’s correlation coefficient and the clustering coefficient in the erased configuration model. Our results explain the structural correlations in the erased configuration model and show that removing edges leads to different scaling of the clustering coefficient. We prove that for the rank-1 inhomogeneous random graph, another null model that creates scale-free simple networks, the results for Pearson’s correlation coefficient as well as for the clustering coefficient are similar to the results for the erased configuration model.

In this paper, we solve exit problems for a one-sided Markov additive process (MAP) which is exponentially killed with a bivariate killing intensity $\omega(\cdot,\cdot)$ dependent on the present level of the process and the current state of the environment. Moreover, we analyze the respective resolvents. All identities are expressed in terms of new generalizations of classical scale matrices for MAPs. We also remark on a number of applications of the obtained identities to (controlled) insurance risk processes. In particular, we show that our results can be applied to the Omega model, where bankruptcy takes place at rate $\omega(\cdot,\cdot)$ when the surplus process becomes negative. Finally, we consider Markov-modulated Brownian motion (MMBM) as a special case and present analytical and numerical results for a particular choice of piecewise intensity function $\omega(\cdot,\cdot)$ .

Let (Y, Z) denote the solution to a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). If one constructs a random walk $B^n$ from the underlying Brownian motion B by Skorokhod embedding, one can show $L_2$-convergence of the corresponding solutions $(Y^n,Z^n)$ to $(Y, Z).$ We estimate the rate of convergence based on smoothness properties, especially for a terminal condition function in $C^{2,\alpha}$. The proof relies on an approximative representation of $Z^n$ and uses the concept of discretized Malliavin calculus. Moreover, we use growth and smoothness properties of the partial differential equation associated to the FBSDE, as well as of the finite difference equations associated to the approximating stochastic equations. We derive these properties by probabilistic methods.

Fractal percolation exhibits a dramatic topological phase transition, changing abruptly from a dust-like set to a system-spanning cluster. The transition points are unknown and difficult to estimate. In many classical percolation models the percolation thresholds have been approximated well using additive geometric functionals, known as intrinsic volumes. Motivated by the question of whether a similar approach is possible for fractal models, we introduce corresponding geometric functionals for the fractal percolation process F. They arise as limits of expected functionals of finite approximations of F. We establish the existence of these limit functionals and obtain explicit formulas for them as well as for their finite approximations.

We study the long-term behaviour of a random walker embedded in a growing sequence of graphs. We define a (generally non-Markovian) real-valued stochastic process, called the knowledge process, that represents the ratio between the number of vertices already visited by the walker and the current size of the graph. We mainly focus on the case where the underlying graph sequence is the growing sequence of complete graphs.

Let V be an n-set, and let X be a random variable taking values in the power-set of V. Suppose we are given a sequence of random coupons $X_1, X_2, \ldots $ , where the $X_i$ are independent random variables with distribution given by X. The covering time T is the smallest integer $t\geq 0$ such that $\bigcup_{i=1}^t X_i=V$ . The distribution of T is important in many applications in combinatorial probability, and has been extensively studied. However the literature has focused almost exclusively on the case where X is assumed to be symmetric and/or uniform in some way.

In this paper we study the covering time for much more general random variables X; we give general criteria for T being sharply concentrated around its mean, precise tools to estimate that mean, as well as examples where T fails to be concentrated and when structural properties in the distribution of X allow for a very different behaviour of T relative to the symmetric/uniform case.

This work is devoted to a vast extension of Sanov’s theorem, in Laplace principle form, based on alternatives to the classical convex dual pair of relative entropy and cumulant generating functional. The abstract results give rise to a number of probabilistic limit theorems and asymptotics. For instance, widely applicable non-exponential large deviation upper bounds are derived for empirical distributions and averages of independent and identically distributed samples under minimal integrability assumptions, notably accommodating heavy-tailed distributions. Other interesting manifestations of the abstract results include new results on the rate of convergence of empirical measures in Wasserstein distance, uniform large deviation bounds, and variational problems involving optimal transport costs, as well as an application to error estimates for approximate solutions of stochastic optimization problems. The proofs build on the Dupuis–Ellis weak convergence approach to large deviations as well as the duality theory for convex risk measures.

A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the population as a measure-valued process and obtain its asymptotics as the population grows with the environmental carrying capacity. Thus, a deterministic approximation is given, in the form of a law of large numbers, as well as a central limit theorem. This general framework is then adapted to model sexual reproduction, with a special section on serial monogamic mating systems.

Hawkes processes have been widely used in many areas, but their probability properties can be quite difficult. In this paper an elementary approach is presented to obtain moments of Hawkes processes and/or the intensity of a number of marked Hawkes processes, in which the detailed outline is given step by step; it works not only for all Markovian Hawkes processes but also for some non-Markovian Hawkes processes. The approach is simpler and more convenient than usual methods such as the Dynkin formula and martingale methods. The method is applied to one-dimensional Hawkes processes and other related processes such as Cox processes, dynamic contagion processes, inhomogeneous Poisson processes, and non-Markovian cases. Several results are obtained which may be useful in studying Hawkes processes and other counting processes. Our proposed method is an extension of the Dynkin formula, which is simple and easy to use.

We study networks of interacting queues governed by utility-maximising service-rate allocations in both discrete and continuous time. For finite networks we establish stability and some steady-state moment bounds under natural conditions and rather weak assumptions on utility functions. These results are obtained using direct applications of Lyapunov–Foster-type criteria, and apply to a wide class of systems, including those for which fluid-limit-based approaches are not applicable. We then establish stability and some steady-state moment bounds for two classes of infinite networks, with single-hop and multi-hop message routes. These results are proved by considering the infinite systems as limits of their truncated finite versions. The uniform moment bounds for the finite networks play a key role in these limit transitions.

This paper studies the scaling of the expected total queue size in an $n\times n$ input-queued switch, as a function of both the load $\rho$ and the system scale n. We provide a new class of scheduling policies under which the expected total queue size scales as $O\big( n(1-\rho)^{-4/3} \log \big(\!\max\big\{\frac{1}{1-\rho}, n\big\}\big)\big)$, over all n and $\rho<1$, when the arrival rates are uniform. This improves on the best previously known scalings in two regimes: $O\big(n^{1.5}(1-\rho)^{-1} \log \frac{1}{1-\rho}\big)$ when $\Omega\big(n^{-1.5}\big) \le 1-\rho \le O\big(n^{-1}\big)$ and $O\big(\frac{n\log n}{(1-\rho)^2}\big)$ when $1-\rho \geq \Omega(n^{-1})$. A key ingredient in our method is a tight characterization of the largest k-factor of a random bipartite multigraph, which may be of independent interest.

This article investigates the long-time behavior of conservative affine processes on the cone of symmetric positive semidefinite $d\times d$ matrices. In particular, for conservative and subcritical affine processes we show that a finite $\log$ -moment of the state-independent jump measure is sufficient for the existence of a unique limit distribution. Moreover, we study the convergence rate of the underlying transition kernel to the limit distribution: first, in a specific metric induced by the Laplace transform, and second, in the Wasserstein distance under a first moment assumption imposed on the state-independent jump measure and an additional condition on the diffusion parameter.

Large samples from a light-tailed distribution often have a well-defined shape. This paper examines the implications of the assumption that there is a limit shape. We show that the limit shape determines the upper quantiles for a large class of random variables. These variables may be described loosely as continuous homogeneous functionals of the underlying random vector. They play an important role in evaluating risk in a multivariate setting. The paper also looks at various coefficients of tail dependence and at the distribution of the scaled sample points for large samples. The paper assumes convergence in probability rather than almost sure convergence. This results in an elegant theory. In particular, there is a simple characterization of domains of attraction.

Draw-down time for a stochastic process is the first passage time of a draw-down level that depends on the previous maximum of the process. In this paper we study the draw-down-related Parisian ruin problem for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes. Intuitively, a draw-down Parisian ruin occurs when the surplus process has continuously stayed below the dynamic draw-down level for a fixed amount of time. We introduce the draw-down Parisian ruin time and solve the corresponding two-sided exit problems via excursion theory. We also find an expression for the potential measure for the process killed at the draw-down Parisian time. As applications, we obtain new results for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes with dividend barrier and with Parisian ruin.

In the first part of this paper we study approximations of trajectories of piecewise deterministic processes (PDPs) when the flow is not given explicitly by the thinning method. We also establish a strong error estimate for PDPs as well as a weak error expansion for piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). These estimates are the building blocks of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method, which we study in the second part. The coupling required by the MLMC is based on the thinning procedure. In the third part we apply these results to a two-dimensional Morris–Lecar model with stochastic ion channels. In the range of our simulations the MLMC estimator outperforms classical Monte Carlo.