Suppose that we observe an infinite realisation of a point process Π, which is a superposition of a number of mutually independent recurrent point processes Πi, such that

Motivated by the need of studying a subset of components, ‘separate' from the other components, we introduce a new definition of ‘marginal distribution'. This is done by fixing the lives of the other components, but without the ‘knowledge' of the components of interest. Formally this is done by minimally repairing the components of no interest up to a predetermined time. Preservation properties of these ‘conditional marginal distributions', with respect to several stochastic orderings, are obtained. Also, inheritance of positive dependence properties, by the conditional marginal distributions, is shown. In addition, the preservations of dynamic multivariate aging properties, by the dynamic conditional marginal distributions, are obtained. The definitions and results are illustrated by a set of examples. Some applications for modelling ‘combinations' of sets of random lifetimes, and for bounding complex sets of random lifetimes, are described.

Formulas for the asymptotic failure rate, long-term average availability, and the limiting distribution of the number of long ‘outages' are obtained for a general class of two-state reliability models for maintained systems. The results extend known formulas for alternating renewal processes to a wider class of point processes that includes sequences of dependent or non-identically distributed operating and repair times.

Let ξ be a random measure on a locally compact second countable topological group, and let X be a random element in a measurable space on which the group acts. In the compact case we give a natural definition of the concept that the origin is a typical location for X in the mass of ξ, and prove that when this holds, the same is true on sets placed uniformly at random around the origin. This new result motivates an extension of the concept of typicality to the locally compact case where it coincides with the concept of mass-stationarity. We describe recent developments in Palm theory where these ideas play a central role.

The almost-sure existence of a polymer probability in the infinite volume limit is readily obtained under general conditions of weak disorder from standard theory on multiplicative cascades or branching random walks. However, speculations in the case of strong disorder have been mixed. In this note existence of an infinite volume probability is established at critical strong disorder for which one has convergence in probability. Some calculations in support of a specific formula for the almost-sure asymptotic variance of the polymer path under strong disorder are also provided.

We consider the time behaviour associated to the sequential Monte Carlo estimate of the backward interpretation of Feynman-Kac formulae. This is particularly of interest in the context of performing smoothing for hidden Markov models. We prove a central limit theorem under weaker assumptions than adopted in the literature. We then show that the associated asymptotic variance expression for additive functionals grows at most linearly in time under hypotheses that are weaker than those currently existing in the literature. The assumptions are verified for some hidden Markov models.

We suggest a new universal method of stochastic simulation, allowing us to generate rather efficiently random vectors with arbitrary densities in a connected open region or on its boundary. Our method belongs to the class of dynamic Monte Carlo procedures and is based on a special construction of a Markov chain on the boundary of the region. Its remarkable feature is that this chain admits a simple simulation, based on a universal (depending only on the dimensionality of the space) stochastic driver.

A target is assumed to choose its starting position in a search at an unknown position in a finite search space. No prior probability distribution for the target's initial location is assumed. During the search the target is assumed to move from position to position in the search space according to a Markov process. A search is defined to be the observation of a sequence of random variables. Representations for the minimax estimator for target location at any stage of the search, the least favorable prior distribution for the target, and the value of the estimation game are presented. An example is computed in which Bayes estimators are compared with minimax estimators for target location.

Two competitors observe a Poisson stream of offers. The offers are independent and identically distributed random variables from some continuous distribution. Each of the competitors wishes to accept one offer in the interval [0, T] and each aims to select an offer larger than that of his competitor. Offers are observed sequentially and decisions to accept or reject must be made when the offers arrive. Optimal strategies and winning probabilities are obtained for the competitors under a priorized decision scheme. The time of first offer acceptance is also analyzed. In all cases the asymptotic results are obtained.

We propose a class of models of random walks in a random environment where an exact solution can be given for a stationary distribution. The environment is cast in terms of a Jackson/Gordon–Newell network although alternative interpretations are possible. The main tool is the detailed balance equations. The difference compared to earlier works is that the position of the random walk influences the transition intensities of the network environment and vice versa, creating strong correlations. The form of the stationary distribution is closely related to the well-known product formula.

We present some non-stationary infinite-server queueing systems with stationary Poisson departure processes. In Foley (1982), it was shown that the departure process from the Mt/Gt/∞ queue was a Poisson process, possibly non-stationary. The Mt/Gt/∞ queue is an infinite-server queue with a stationary or non-stationary Poisson arrival process and a general server in which the service time of a customer may depend upon the customer's arrival time. Mirasol (1963) pointed out that the departure process from the M/G/∞ queue is a stationary Poisson process. The question arose whether there are any other Mt/Gt/∞ queueing systems with stationary Poisson departure processes. For example, if the arrival rate is periodic, is it possible to select the service-time distribution functions to fluctuate in order to compensate for the fluctuations of the arrival rate? In this situation and in more general situations, it is possible to select the server such that the system yields a stationary Poisson departure process.

Using a coupling technique, rates of convergence in total variation of certain k -dimensional diffusion processes to the stationary distribution are obtained. The results place assumptions only on the coefficients of the elliptic differential operator governing the diffusion.

Finiteness of mean extinction times for certain predator-prey models has been established by Hitchcock (1986) with the aid of a criterion of Reuter (1957). Using this criterion and a ‘minimisation' lemma this note shows that the mean extinction times tend to zero as the combined initial population of predators and prey becomes large.

Random stable limit theorems have been obtained by several authors, e.g., [3], [4]. The purpose of this note is to give a rather elementary proof of the basic version of this theorem. Our proof may be viewed as the natural extension to stable laws of the method used by Rényi [2] in obtaining a random central limit theorem. Indeed, the only “outside” theorems used are Kolmogorov's inequality (which Rényi also uses) and a general theorem on necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence of a triangular array. It will also be observed that in the present theorem, the consideration of random variables in the domain of attraction of a stable law of index α = 1, introduces no additional difficulties.

We discuss the limits of point processes which are generated by a triangular array of rare events. Such point processes are motivated by the exceedances of a high boundary by a random sequence since exceedances are rare events in this case. This application relates the problem to extreme value theory from where the method is used to treat the asymptotic approximation of these point processes. The presented general approach extends, unifies and clarifies some of the various conditions used in the extreme value theory.

This paper provides a comparison of the successive lumping (SL) methodology developed in Katehakis et al. (2015) with the popular lattice path counting (Mohanty (1979)) in obtaining rate matrices for queueing models, satisfying the specific quasi birth and death structure as in Van Leeuwaarden et al. (2009) and Van Leeuwaarden and Winands (2006). The two methodologies are compared both in terms of applicability requirements and numerical complexity by analyzing their performance for the same classical queueing models considered in Van Leeuwaarden et al. (2009). The main findings are threefold. First, when both methods are applicable, the SL-based algorithms outperform the lattice path counting algorithm (LPCA). Second, there are important classes of problems (for example, models with (level) nonhomogenous rates or with finite state spaces) for which the SL methodology is applicable and for which the LPCA cannot be used. Third, another main advantage of SL algorithms over lattice path counting is that the former includes a method to compute the steady state distribution using this rate matrix.

We investigate the Zagreb index, one of the topological indices, of random recursive trees in this paper. Through a recurrence equation, the first two moments of Z n , the Zagreb index of a random recursive tree of size n, are obtained. We also show that the random process {Z n − E[Z n ], n ≥ 1} is a martingale. Then the asymptotic normality of the Zagreb index of a random recursive tree is given by an application of the martingale central limit theorem. Finally, two other topological indices are also discussed in passing.

Let 𝓈 be a finite or countable set. Given a matrix F = (Fij)i,j∈𝓈 of distribution functions on R and a quasistochastic matrix Q = (qij)i,j∈𝓈, i.e. an irreducible nonnegative matrix with maximal eigenvalue 1 and associated unique (modulo scaling) positive left and right eigenvectors u and v, the matrix renewal measure ∑n≥0Qn ⊗ F*n associated with Q ⊗ F := (qijFij)i,j∈𝓈 (see below for precise definitions) and a related Markov renewal equation are studied. This was done earlier by de Saporta (2003) and Sgibnev (2006, 2010) by drawing on potential theory, matrix-analytic methods, and Wiener-Hopf techniques. In this paper we describe a probabilistic approach which is quite different and starts from the observation that Q ⊗ F becomes an ordinary semi-Markov matrix after a harmonic transform. This allows us to relate Q ⊗ F to a Markov random walk {(Mn, Sn)}n≥0 with discrete recurrent driving chain {Mn}n≥0. It is then shown that renewal theorems including a Choquet-Deny-type lemma may be easily established by resorting to standard renewal theory for ordinary random walks. The paper concludes with two typical examples.

We study the asymptotic tail behavior of the conditional probability distributions of rt+k and rt+1+⋯+rt+k when (rt)t∈ℕ is a GARCH(1, 1) process. As an application, we examine the relation between the extreme lower quantiles of these random variables.

This paper studies the geometric convergence rate of a discrete renewal sequence to its limit. A general convergence rate is first derived from the hazard rates of the renewal lifetimes. This result is used to extract a good convergence rate when the lifetimes are ordered in the sense of new better than used or increasing hazard rate. A bound for the best possible geometric convergence rate is derived for lifetimes having a finite support. Examples demonstrating the utility and sharpness of the results are presented. Several of the examples study convergence rates for Markov chains.