We study a d-dimensional reflected fractional Brownian motion (RFBM) process on the positive orthant S = ℝ+ d , with drift r 0 ∈ ℝ d and Hurst parameter H ∈ (½, 1). Under a natural stability condition on the drift vector r 0 and reflection directions, we establish a geometric drift towards a compact set for the 1-skeleton chain Ž̆ of the RFBM process Z; that is, there exist β, b ∈ (0, ∞) and a compact set C ⊂ S such that ΔV(x):= E x [V(Ž̆(1))] − V(x) ≤ −βV(x) + b 1 C (x), x ∈ S, for an exponentially growing Lyapunov function V : S → [1, ∞). For a wide class of Markov processes, such a drift inequality is known as a necessary and sufficient condition for exponential ergodicity. Indeed, similar drift inequalities have been established for reflected processes driven by standard Brownian motions, and our result can be viewed as their fractional Brownian motion counterpart. We also establish that the return times to the set C itself are geometrically bounded. Motivation for this study is that RFBM appears as a limiting workload process for fluid queueing network models fed by a large number of heavy-tailed ON/OFF sources in heavy traffic.

The focus of our attention is the limit distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random vectors from which all the extreme summands are removed. The problem is rather trivial if the summands are ordered by their norms. It is of much more interest when the vertices of the convex hull generated by the vectors are taken as the extremes.

Let {Z(t)}t0 be an age-dependent branching process with immigration. For a general class of functions Φ(x), a necessary and sufficient condition is given for when E{Φ (Z(t))} <∞. This result is a direct generalization of a theorem proven for the branching process without immigration.

We find a ‘natural' measure on the set of convex infinite cylinders touching a convex body K in En. Using the curvature measures, we can calculate the probability that a convex infinite cylinder and a convex body K are tangent in some previously determined regions. As a particular case we obtain a measure on all q-planes touching K.

Results similar to those in [3] are obtained for one-dimensional diffusion processes with discounted cost. The stronger assumption that at least one of the inaccessible boundaries is natural enables us to identify the solution of a differential equation corresponding to the future expected cost function.

A time-series consisting of white noise plus Brownian motion sampled at equal intervals of time is exactly orthogonalized by a discrete cosine transform (DCT-II). This paper explores the properties of a version of spectral analysis based on the discrete cosine transform and its use in distinguishing between a stationary time-series and an integrated (unit root) time-series.

In this paper we consider general counting processes stopped at a random time T, independent of the process. Provided that T has the decreasing failure rate (DFR) property, we present sufficient conditions on the arrival times so that the number of events occurring before T preserves the DFR property of T. In particular, when the interarrival times are independent, we consider applications concerning the DFR property of the stationary number of customers waiting in queue for specific queueing models.

To optimize the performance of an M/M/s queue, Moder and Phillips [1] have studied the problem in which there are always n1 open counters ready to offer service. The actual number of open counters increases by one, up to a maximum n2, every time the number of waiting customers exceeds a certain critical number; it decreases by one every time the queue length becomes smaller than another critical number.

For many years the modified Mercalli (MM) scale has been used to describe earthquake damage and effects observed at scattered locations. In the next stage of an analysis involving MM data, isoseismal lines based on the observations have been added to maps by hand, i.e. subjectively. However a few objective methods have been proposed (by e.g. De Rubeis et al., Brillinger, Wald et al. and Pettenati et al.). The work presented here develops objective methods further. In particular the ordinal character of the MM scale is specifically taken into account. Numerical smoothing is basic to the approach and methods involving splines, local polynomial regression and wavelets are illustrated. The approach also allows the inclusion of explanatory variables, for example site effects. The procedure is implemented for data from the 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.

We present sufficient conditions for the weak convergence of the distributions of the kth order statistics from a conditionally mixing array of random variables to limit laws which are represented in terms of a mixed compound Poisson distribution.

The De Vylder and Goovaerts conjecture is an open problem in risk theory, stating that the finite-time ruin probability in a standard risk model is greater than or equal to the corresponding ruin probability evaluated in an associated model with equalized claim amounts. Equalized means here that the jump sizes of the associated model are equal to the average jump in the initial model between 0 and a terminal time T.In this paper, we consider the diffusion approximations of both the standard risk model and its associated risk model. We prove that the associated model, when conveniently renormalized, converges in distribution to a Gaussian process satisfying a simple SDE. We then compute the probability that this diffusion hits the level 0 before time T and compare it with the same probability for the diffusion approximation for the standard risk model. We conclude that the De Vylder and Goovaerts conjecture holds for the diffusion limits.

We provide an algorithm to find the value and an optimal strategy of the Ten Thousand dice game solitaire variant in the framework of Markov control processes. Once an optimal critical threshold is found, the set of nonstopping states of the game becomes finite and the solution is found by a backwards algorithm that gives the values for each one of these states of the game. The algorithm is finite and exact. The strategy to find the critical threshold comes from the continuous pasting condition used in optimal stopping problems for continuous-time processes with jumps.

A new representation for the characteristic function of the multivariate strictly geo-stable distribution is presented. The representation is appealing from a parametric viewpoint: its parameters have an intuitive probabilistic interpretation; and it is particularly useful for estimating the parameters of the geo-stable distribution.

We give some explicit formulae for the prices of two path-dependent options which combine Brownian averages and penalizations. Because these options are based on both the maximum and local time of Brownian motion, obtaining their prices necessitates some involved study of homogeneous Brownian functionals, which may be of interest in their own right.

For exponential open and closed queueing networks, we investigate the internal dependence structure, compare the internal dependence for different networks, and discuss the relation of correlation formulae to the existence of spectral gaps and comparison of asymptotic variances. A central prerequisite for the derived theorems is stochastic monotonicity of the networks. The dependence structure of network processes is described by concordance order with respect to various classes of functions. Different networks with the same first-order characteristics are compared with respect to their second-order properties. If a network is perturbed by changing the routeing in a way which holds the routeing equilibrium fixed, the resulting perturbations of the network processes are evaluated.

We investigate the average similarity of random strings as captured by the average number of ‘cousins’ in the underlying tree structures. Analytical techniques including poissonization and the Mellin transform are used for accurate calculation of the mean. The string alphabets we consider are m-ary, and the corresponding trees are m-ary trees. Certain analytic issues arise in the m-ary case that do not have an analog in the binary case.

We give a simple method to approximate multidimensional exponentially tempered stable processes and show that the approximating process converges in the Skorokhod topology to the tempered process. The approximation is based on the generation of a random angle and a random variable with a lower-dimensional Lévy measure. We then show that if an arbitrarily small normal random variable is added, the marginal densities converge uniformly at an almost linear rate, providing a critical tool to assess the performance of existing particle tracking codes.

It is well known and readily seen that the maximum of n independent and uniformly on [0, 1] distributed random variables, suitably standardised, converges in total variation distance, as n increases, to the standard negative exponential distribution. We extend this result to higher dimensions by considering copulas. We show that the strong convergence result holds for copulas that are in a differential neighbourhood of a multivariate generalised Pareto copula. Sklar’s theorem then implies convergence in variational distance of the maximum of n independent and identically distributed random vectors with arbitrary common distribution function and (under conditions on the marginals) of its appropriately normalised version. We illustrate how these convergence results can be exploited to establish the almost-sure consistency of some estimation procedures for max-stable models, using sample maxima.

We prove concentration inequality results for geometric graph properties of an instance of the Cooper–Frieze [5] preferential attachment model with edge-steps. More precisely, we investigate a random graph model that at each time $t\in \mathbb{N}$ , with probability p adds a new vertex to the graph (a vertex-step occurs) or with probability $1-p$ an edge connecting two existent vertices is added (an edge-step occurs). We prove concentration results for the global clustering coefficient as well as the clique number. More formally, we prove that the global clustering, with high probability, decays as $t^{-\gamma(p)}$ for a positive function $\gamma$ of p, whereas the clique number of these graphs is, up to subpolynomially small factors, of order $t^{(1-p)/(2-p)}$ .