In this paper we study the expected rank problem under full information. Our approach uses the planar Poisson approach from Gnedin (2007) to derive the expected rank of a stopping rule that is one of the simplest nontrivial examples combining rank dependent rules with threshold rules. This rule attains an expected rank lower than the best upper bounds obtained in the literature so far, in particular, we obtain an expected rank of 2.326 14.

In this paper the distributions of the number of intersections of three, four and five random chords to a circle are obtained by a reduction technique employing Ptolemy's theorem. These results are then used to obtain the skewness and kurtosis of the number of intersections of n random chords to a circle.

For a Markov process in discrete time, having finite covariances, both the transient behaviour and the correlation structure may be summed up in a single generating function, here called the key function. If the process is stationary, and the key function possesses a suitable analytic extension, then the process possesses a continuous spectral density, which can be calculated from the key function. A converse result, and some results for the non-stationary process, are also obtained. The calculation is discussed in more detail for the waiting-time process in the GI/G/1 queue.

In this paper we consider a one dimensional stochastic system described by an elliptic equation. A spatially varying random coefficient is introduced to account for uncertainty or imprecise measurements. We model the logarithm of this coefficient by a Gaussian process and provide asymptotic approximations of the tail probabilities of the derivative of the solution.

Let Tx be the length of time to accumulate x units of a resource. In queueing, the resource could be service. We derive a sufficient condition for the process to have stationary increments where Tx is an additive functional of a Markov process. This condition is satisfied in symmetric queues and generalized semi-Markov schemes with insensitive components. As a corollary, we show that the conditional expected response time in a symmetric queue is linear in the service requirement. A similar result holds for the conditional average residence time of an insensitive component in a GSMS.

The stacked contact process is a three-state spin system that describes the co-evolution of a population of hosts together with their symbionts. In a nutshell, the hosts evolve according to a contact process while the symbionts evolve according to a contact process on the dynamic subset of the lattice occupied by the host population, indicating that the symbiont can only live within a host. This paper is concerned with a generalization of this system in which the symbionts may affect the fitness of the hosts by either decreasing (pathogen) or increasing (mutualist) their birth rate. Standard coupling arguments are first used to compare the process with other interacting particle systems and deduce the long-term behavior of the host–symbiont system in several parameter regions. The spatial model is also compared with its mean-field approximation as studied in detail by Foxall (2019). Our main result focuses on the case where unassociated hosts have a supercritical birth rate whereas hosts associated to a pathogen have a subcritical birth rate. In this case, the mean-field model predicts coexistence of the hosts and their pathogens provided the infection rate is large enough. For the spatial model, however, only the hosts survive on the one-dimensional integer lattice.

Asymptotic normality and the weak invariance principle are studied for an iterated renewal process of order A martingale decomposition is used in this context to provide a simple proof.

Let X1, X2, · ··, Xn, · ·· be independent and identically distributed non-negative integer-valued random variables with finite mean and variance. For any positive integer n and m we consider the random vector i.e., L has the same distribution as the conditional distribution of (X1, · ··, Xm) given the condition It is easy to see that our model includes the classical urn model, the Bose–Einstein urn model and the Pólya urn model as special cases. For any non-negative integer s define G(s) = the number of Li′s such that Li = s, and U = the number of Li′s such that Li is an even number; in this paper we study the asymptotic behaviour of the random variables considered above. Some central limit theorems and a multinormal local limit theorem are proved.

In this note we present a bound of the optimal maximum probability for the multiplicative odds theorem of optimal stopping theory. We deal with an optimal stopping problem that maximizes the probability of stopping on any of the last m successes of a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials of length N, where m and N are predetermined integers satisfying 1 ≤ m < N. This problem is an extension of Bruss' (2000) odds problem. In a previous work, Tamaki (2010) derived an optimal stopping rule. We present a lower bound of the optimal probability. Interestingly, our lower bound is attained using a variation of the well-known secretary problem, which is a special case of the odds problem.

In the localization game on a graph, the goal is to find a fixed but unknown target node $v^\star$ with the least number of distance queries possible. In the jth step of the game, the player queries a single node $v_j$ and receives, as an answer to their query, the distance between the nodes $v_j$ and $v^\star$ . The sequential metric dimension (SMD) is the minimal number of queries that the player needs to guess the target with absolute certainty, no matter where the target is.

The term SMD originates from the related notion of metric dimension (MD), which can be defined the same way as the SMD except that the player’s queries are non-adaptive. In this work we extend the results of Bollobás, Mitsche, and Prałat [4] on the MD of Erdős–Rényi graphs to the SMD. We find that, in connected Erdős–Rényi graphs, the MD and the SMD are a constant factor apart. For the lower bound we present a clean analysis by combining tools developed for the MD and a novel coupling argument. For the upper bound we show that a strategy that greedily minimizes the number of candidate targets in each step uses asymptotically optimal queries in Erdős–Rényi graphs. Connections with source localization, binary search on graphs, and the birthday problem are discussed.

Let $\mathbf{X}$ be a $p\times n$ random matrix whose entries are independent and identically distributed real random variables with zero mean and unit variance. We study the limiting behaviors of the 2-normal condition number k(p,n) of $\mathbf{X}$ in terms of large deviations for large n, with p being fixed or $p=p(n)\rightarrow\infty$ with $p(n)=o(n)$ . We propose two main ingredients: (i) to relate the large-deviation probabilities of k(p,n) to those involving n independent and identically distributed random variables, which enables us to consider a quite general distribution of the entries (namely the sub-Gaussian distribution), and (ii) to control, for standard normal entries, the upper tail of k(p,n) using the upper tails of ratios of two independent $\chi^2$ random variables, which enables us to establish an application in statistical inference.

Web servers have to be protected against overload since overload can lead to a server breakdown, which in turn causes high response times and low throughput. In this paper, a stochastic model for breakdowns of server systems due to overload is proposed and an admission control policy which protects Web servers by controlling the amount and rate of work entering the system is studied. Requests from the clients arrive at the server following a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and each requested job takes a random time to be completed. It is assumed that the breakdown rate of the server depends on the number of jobs which are currently being performed by the server. Based on the proposed model, the reliability function and the breakdown rate function of the server system are derived. Furthermore, the long-run expected number of jobs completed per unit time is derived as the efficiency measure, and the optimal admission control policy which maximizes the efficiency will be discussed.

We show how convergence to the Gumbel distribution in an extreme value setting can be understood in an information-theoretic sense. We introduce a new type of score function which behaves well under the maximum operation, and which implies simple expressions for entropy and relative entropy. We show that, assuming certain properties of the von Mises representation, convergence to the Gumbel distribution can be proved in the strong sense of relative entropy.

A subfair discounted red-and-black game with a house limit is introduced and the optimality of the modified bold strategy is shown.

We give an expression for the expectation of max (0, S1, …, Sn) where Sk is the kth partial sum of a finite sequence of exchangeable random variables X1, …, Xn. When the Xk are also independent, the formula we give has already been obtained by Spitzer; and when the sequence is a finite segment of an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables, it is a consequence of a theorem of Hewitt.

We find the explicit value of perpetual American put options in the constant elasticity of variance model using the concept of smooth fit. We show that the price is increasing in the volatility and convex in the underlying stock price. Moreover, as the model converges to the standard Black and Scholes model, the value of the put is shown to approach the ‘correct’ limit.

The goal is to identify the class of distributions to which the distribution of the maximum of a Lévy process with no negative jumps and negative mean (equivalently, the stationary distribution of the reflected process) belongs. An explicit new distributional identity is obtained for the case where the Lévy process is an independent sum of a Brownian motion and a general subordinator (nondecreasing Lévy process) in terms of a geometrically distributed sum of independent random variables. This generalizes both the distributional form of the standard Pollaczek-Khinchine formula for the stationary workload distribution in the M/G/1 queue and the exponential stationary distribution of a reflected Brownian motion.

We consider a Markov chain of point processes such that each state is a superposition of an independent cluster process with the previous state as its centre process together with some independent noise process and a thinned version of the previous state. The model extends earlier work by Felsenstein (1975) and Shimatani (2010) describing a reproducing population. We discuss when closed-form expressions of the first- and second-order moments are available for a given state. In a special case it is known that the pair correlation function for these type of point processes converges as the Markov chain progresses, but it has not been shown whether the Markov chain has an equilibrium distribution with this, particular, pair correlation function and how it may be constructed. Assuming the same reproducing system, we construct an equilibrium distribution by a coupling argument.

We study the uniform ergodicity of Markov processes (Zn, n ≥ 1) of order 2 with a general state space (Z, 𝒵). Markov processes of order higher than 1 were defined in the literature long ago, but scarcely treated in detail. We take as the basis for our considerations the natural transition probability Q of such a process. A Markov process of order 2 is transformed into one of order 1 by combining two consecutive variables Z2n–1 and Z2n into one variable Yn with values in the Cartesian product space (Z × Z, 𝒵 ⊗ 𝒵). Thus, a Markov process (Yn, n ≥ 1) of order 1 with transition probability R is generated. Uniform ergodicity for the process (Zn, n ≥ 1) is defined in terms of the same property for (Yn, n ≥ 1). We give some conditions on the transition probability Q which transfer to R and thus ensure the uniform ergodicity of (Zn, n ≥ 1). We apply the general results to study the uniform ergodicity of Markov processes of order 2 which arise in some nonlinear time series models and as sequences of smoothed values in sequential smoothing procedures of Markovian observations. As for the time series models, Markovian noise sequences are covered.