This paper examines holding period returns to constant duration portfolios of U.S. Government notes and bonds, and measures the return premium generated by liquidity differences in bonds. The approach compares constant duration portfolios constructed in two distinct ways: one using only bonds issued in the most recent Treasury auction, one using all other bonds. Comparisons of the resulting series are made meaningful by choosing narrow duration ranges in the portfolio formation procedure. This, in turn, induces a missing data problem in the created time series. Parameters of return distributions are therefore estimated employing a maximum likelihood framework that explicitly accounts for the missing data. It is estimated that recently issued bonds are priced to return a premium of around 55 basis points per annum over otherwise equivalent instruments.

We present large sample evidence on the performance of domestic and U.S. (foreign) bidder firms acquiring Canadian targets. Domestic bidders earn significantly positive average announcement period abnormal returns, while U.S. bidder returns are indistinguishable from zero. Measures of pre- and post-acquisition abnormal accounting performance are also consistent with a superior domestic bidder performance. Domestic bidder announcement returns are, on average, greatest for offers involving stock payment and for the bidders with the smallest equity size relative to the target. Neither direct foreign investment controls, horizontal product market relationships, nor acquisition propensities explain why domestic bidders outperform their U.S. competitors.

This paper examines whether self-described market timing hedge funds have the ability to time the U.S. equity market. We propose a new measure for timing return and volatility jointly that relates fund returns to the squared Sharpe ratio of the market portfolio. Using a sample of 221 market timing funds during 1994–2005, we find evidence of timing ability at both the aggregate and fund levels. Timing ability appears relatively strong in bear and volatile market conditions. Our findings are robust to other explanations, including public information-based strategies, options trading, and illiquid holdings. Bootstrap analysis shows that the evidence is unlikely to be attributed to luck.

We use a no-arbitrage, cost-of-carry asset pricing model to show that the existence of cointegration between spot and forward (futures) prices depends on the time-series properties of the cost-of-carry. We argue that the conditions for cointegration are more likely to hold in currency markets than in commodity markets, explaining many of the empirical results in the literature. We also use this model to demonstrate why the forward rate forecast error, the basis, and the forward premium are serially correlated, and to develop econometric tests of the “unbiasedness hypothesis” (sometimes called the “simple efficiency hypothesis”) in various financial markets. The unbiasedness hypothesis is so prevalent in the finance literature that many tests for it have been developed. We examine four of the common tests and and use our cointegration results to demonstrate why each of these tests should reject the null hypothesis of unbiasedness. We find strong support for our hypothesis in the existing empirical literature.

Both bond rating agencies and stock analysts evaluate publicly traded companies and communicate their opinions to investors. Comparing the timeliness of each, we find that Granger causality flows both ways. While most bond downgrades are preceded by declines in actual and forecast earnings, both actual earnings and forecasts of future earnings tend to fall following downgrades. Although part of this post-downgrade forecast revision can be attributed to negative news regarding actual earnings, most appears to be reaction to the downgrade itself. We find little change in actual earnings following upgrades. Analysts, however, tend to increase their forecasts of future earnings.

This paper analyzes a new dataset for the aggregate daily trading of all foreign investors in six Asian emerging equity markets and provides two new findings. First, foreigners' flows into several markets show positive feedback trading with respect to global, as well as domestic, equity returns. The nature of this trading suggests it is due to behavioral factors or foreigners extracting information from recent returns, rather than portfolio rebalancing effects. Second, the price impacts associated with foreigners' trading are much larger than earlier estimates. The results suggest that foreign investors and external conditions have a larger impact on emerging markets than implied by previous work.

Using a novel database of firm patents and board characteristics across 45 countries, we examine both within- and cross-country determinants of board gender diversity and its relation to corporate innovation. Boards are more likely to include women in countries with narrower gender gaps, higher female labor market participation, and less masculine cultures. Firms with gender diverse boards have more patents and novel patents, and a higher innovative efficiency. Further analyses suggest that gender diverse boards are associated with more failure-tolerant and long-term chief executive officer (CEO) incentives, more innovative corporate cultures, and more diverse inventors, characteristics that are conducive to an improved innovative performance.

Since the seminal article by Black and Scholes on the pricing of corporate liabilities, the importance in finance of contingent claims has become widely recognized. The key to the valuation of such claims has been found to lie in the solution to certain partial differential equations. The best known of these was derived by Black and Scholes, in their original article, from the assumption that the value of the asset underlying the contingent claim follows a geometric Brownian motion.

Using a sample of 495 project finance loan tranches (worth $151 billion) to borrowers in 61 different countries, we examine the relation between legal risk and debt ownership structure. The tranches exhibit high absolute levels of debt ownership concentration: the largest single bank holds 20.3% while the top five banks collectively hold 61.2% of a typical tranche. In countries with strong creditor rights and reliable legal enforcement, lenders create smaller and more concentrated syndicates to facilitate monitoring and low cost contracting. When lenders cannot rely on legal enforcement mechanisms to protect their claims, they create larger and more diffuse syndicates as a way to deter strategic default.

Daily retutns are used to examine how mutual funds actively alter the risk of their portfolios in response to past performance. Compared to monthly data, daily returns produce much more efficient estimates of fund volatility, which give vastly different inferences about the behavior of fund managers. In particular, monthly results consistent with under-performers increasing their risk relative to better performing funds disappear with daily data. The differences in the monthly and daily results arise from biases in the monthly volatility estimates attributable to daily return autocorrelation.

We analyze the impact of the press on the behavior of various economic agents by examining how media exposure of board ineffectiveness affects corporate governance, investor trading behavior, and security prices. Our focus on board quality is motivated by the strong media criticism to which corporate boards and corporate America, in general, have been recently subjected. The results indicate that media releases of (noisy) information have significant economic consequences. In particular, media exposure of board ineffectiveness forces the targeted agents to take corrective actions and enhances shareholder wealth. Individual investors appear to react negatively to the media exposure, whereas investment firms act as if they anticipate the targeted firms’ corrective actions.

We analyze how the availability of internal funds affects a firm's investment. We show that under fairly standard assumptions, the relation is U-shaped: investment increases monotonically with internal funds if they are large but decreases if they are very low. We discuss the tradeoff that generates the U-shape, and argue that models predicting an always increasing relation are based on restrictive assumptions. Using a large data set, we find strong empirical support for our predictions. Our results qualify conventional wisdom about the effects of financial constraints on investment behavior, and help to explain seemingly conflicting findings in the empirical literature.

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the United States, we show that country-specific regressions for France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom result in quite similar patterns. Defining a “global” variance risk premium, we uncover even stronger predictability and almost identical cross-country patterns through the use of panel regressions.

The short-term rate of interest is fundamental to much of theoretical and empirical finance, yet no consensus has emerged on the dynamics of its volatility. We show that models which parameterize volatility only as a function of interest rate levels tend to over emphasize the sensitivity of volatility to levels and fail to model adequately the serial correlation in conditional variances. On the other hand, serial correlation based models like GARCH models fail to capture adequately the relationship between interest rate levels and volatility. We introduce and test a new class of models for the dynamics of short-term interest rate volatility, which allows volatility to depend on both interest rate levels and information shocks. Two important conclusions emerge. First, the sensitivity of interest rate volatility to interest rate levels has been overstated in the literature. While this relationship is important, adequately modeling volatility as a function of unexpected information shocks is also important. Second, we conclude that the volatility processes in many existing theoretical models of interest rates are misspecified, and suggest new paths toward improving the theory.

We examine whether the industry expertise of independent directors affects board monitoring effectiveness. We find that the presence of independent directors with industry experience on a firm’s audit committee significantly curtails firms’ earnings management. In addition, a greater representation of independent directors with industry expertise on a firm’s compensation committee reduces chief executive officer (CEO) excess compensation, and a greater presence of such directors on the full board increases the CEO turnover-performance sensitivity and improves acquirer returns from diversifying acquisitions. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that having relevant industry expertise enhances independent directors’ ability to perform their monitoring function.

Using stock transactions data along with detailed stockholdings for a comprehensive sample of U.S. actively managed equity mutual funds from 1993 to 2002, this paper empirically examines the effect of liquidity and investment style on the relation between fund size and fund performance. Consistent with Chen, Hong, Huang, and Kubik (2004), I find a significant inverse relation between fund size and fund performance. Further, this inverse relation is stronger among funds that hold less liquid portfolios. The inverse relation between fund size and fund performance is also more pronounced among growth and high turnover funds that tend to have high demands for immediacy. Overall, this paper's findings suggest that liquidity is an important reason why fund size erodes performance.

This paper examines the relation between managerial ownership and the probability of being a target firm, and the impact of managerial ownership on target shareholder returns. The paper finds that targets have lower managerial ownership than either their industry counterparts or randomly selected nontargets. Managerial ownership is significantly lower in contested compared to uncontested offers, and in unsuccessful compared to successful cases. Managerial ownership is significantly related to abnormal returns in contested cases that are ultimately successful. The results are consistent with a positive impact of managerial ownership where it is used to negotiate, but not ultimately block, an acquisition.

Prior theoretical work on estimation risk generally has been restricted to single-period, returns-based models in which the investor must estimate the vector of expected returns but the covariance matrix is known. This paper extends the literature on parameter uncertainty in several ways. First, we analyze asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a model based on payoffs. Second, we explore the effects of both symmetric and asymmetric estimation risk on equilibrium asset prices when the covariance matrix for payoffs must also be estimated. Finally, we investigate the effects on equilibrium of asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a simple multiperiod model.

We investigate the pricing of risk-neutral skewness in the stock options market by creating skewness assets comprised of two option positions (one long and one short) and a position in the underlying stock. The assets are created such that exposure to changes in the underlying stock price (delta), and exposure to changes in implied volatility (vega) are removed, isolating the effect of skewness. We find a strong negative relation between risk-neutral skewness and the skewness asset returns, consistent with a positive skewness preference. The returns are not explained by well-known market, size, book-to-market, momentum, short-term reversal, volatility, or option market factors.

The paper explores the determinants of yield differentials between sovereign bonds, using euro-area data. There is a common trend in yield differentials, which is correlated with a measure of aggregate risk. In contrast, liquidity differentials display sizeable heterogeneity and no common factor. We propose a simple model with endogenous liquidity demand, where a bond’s liquidity premium depends both on its transaction cost and on investment opportunities. The model predicts that yield differentials should increase in both liquidity and risk, with an interaction term of the opposite sign. Testing these predictions on daily data, we find that the aggregate risk factor is consistently priced, liquidity differentials are priced for a subset of countries, and their interaction with the risk factor is in line with the model’s prediction and crucial to detect their effect.