The specification of a statistical distribution which accurately models the behavior of stock returns continues to be a salient issue in financial economics. With the introduction of arithmetic and geometric Brownian motion models, much attention has recently focused on a Poisson mixture of distributions as an appropriate specification of stock returns. For example, see [12], [3], [8], [10], [5], and [1]. Consistent with empirical evidence, these models yield leptokurtic security return distributions and, furthermore, the specification has much economic intuition. In particular, one may always decompose the total change in stock price into “normal” and “abnormal” components. The “normal” change may be due to variation in capitalization rates, a temporary imbalance between supply and demand, or the receipt of any other information which causes marginal price changes. This component is modelled as a lognormal diffusion process. The “abnormal” change is due to the receipt of any information which causes a more than marginal change in the price of the stock and is usually modeled as a Poisson process.

This study analyzes the effect of second-hand information on the behavior of security prices and volume using analysts' recommendations published in the monthly “Dartboard” column of the Wall Street Journal. For the two days following the publication of the recommendations, average positive abnormal returns of 4 percent—nearly twice the level of abnormal returns documented in previous research on analyst recommendations—and average volume double normal volume levels on the two days following publication of the recommendations are documented. The positive abnormal return on announcement is partially reversed within 25 trading days. The authors conclude that the positive abnormal return on announcement of the recommendations is a result of naive buying pressure as well as the information content of the analysts' recommendations.

We examine how prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets adjust to the new information contained in scheduled macroeconomic news releases in the very short run. Using 10-second returns and tick-by-tick data, we find that prices adjust in a series of numerous small, but rapid, price changes that begin within 10 seconds of the news release and are basically completed within 40 seconds of the release. There is some evidence that prices overreact in the first 40 seconds but that this is corrected in the second or third minute after the release. While volatility tends to be higher than normal just before the news release, there is no evidence of information leakage. In our analysis, we correct for the biases created by bid-ask spreads and tick-by-tick data.

The concept of multifactor portfolio efficiency plays a role in Merton's intertemporal CAPM (the ICAPM), like that of mean-variance efficiency in the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM. In the CAPM, the relation between the expected return on a security and its risk is just the condition on security weights that holds in any mean-variance-efficient portfolio, applied to the market portfolio M. The risk-return relation of the ICAPM is likewise just the application to M of the condition on security weights that produces ICAPM multifactor-efficient portfolios. The main testable implication of the CAPM is that equilibrium security prices require that M is mean-variance-efficient. The main testable implication of the ICAPM is that securities must be priced so that M is multifactor-efficient. As in the CAPM, building the ICAPM on multifactor efficiency exposes its simplicity and allows easy economic insights.

Chief executive officer (CEO) narcissism affects the takeover process. Acquirer shareholders react less favorably to a takeover announcement when the target CEO is more narcissistic. Narcissistic acquiring CEOs negotiate faster. They are also marginally more likely to initiate deals. Acquirer CEO narcissism and target CEO narcissism are associated with a lower probability of deal completion and reduce the likelihood that the target CEO will be employed by the merged firm. Our findings highlight the importance of both acquirer and target CEO psychological characteristics throughout the takeover process.

Arithmetic Asian options are difficult to price and hedge as they do not have closed-form analytic solutions. The main theoretical reason for this difficulty is that the payoff depends on the finite sum of correlated lognormal variables, which is not lognormal and for which there is no recognizable probability density function. We use elementary techniques to derive the probability density function of the infinite sum of correlated lognormal random variables and show that it is reciprocal gamma distributed, under suitable parameter restrictions. A random variable is reciprocal gamma distributed if its inverse is gamma distributed. We use this result to approximate the finite sum of correlated lognormal variables and then value arithmetic Asian options using the reciprocal gamma distribution as the state-price density function. We thus obtain a closed-form analytic expression for the value of an arithmetic Asian option, where the cumulative density function of the gamma distribution, G(d) in our formula, plays the exact same role as N(d) in the Black-Scholes/Merton formula. In addition to being theoretically justified and exact in the limit, we compare our method against other algorithms in the literature and show our method is quicker, at least as accurate, and, in our opinion, more intuitive and pedagogically appealing than any previously published result, especially when applied to high yielding currency options.

We study a transitional economy where state-controlled banks make loan decisions based on noisy inside information on prospective borrowers, and may lend to avert unemployment and social instability. In China, poor financial performance and high managerial expenses increase the likelihood of obtaining a bank loan, and bank loan approval predicts poor subsequent borrower performance. Negative event study responses occur at bank loan announcements, particularly for borrowers measuring poorly on quality and creditworthiness, or for lenders or borrowers involved in litigation regarding loans. Our results highlight dilemmas in a state-led financial system and the local stock market’s sophistication in interpreting news.

We use the modified Black-Scholes model and a random variance option pricing model to study prices of European currency options traded in Geneva. The options, which cannot be exercised early, include calls and puts on the dollar/Swiss franc exchange rate. In the empirical analysis, we examine the model fit and the biases with respect to the strike price, time to maturity, and volatility. There is some evidence of mispricing and there are small gains available by trading with the random variance model.

This paper investigates the effects of stochastic convenience yields, stochastic interest rates, and jumps in the spot price on the pricing of commodity futures, forwards, and futures options. Numerical examples show that one-factor prices differ materially from the stochastic convenience yield two-factor prices when convenience yield is considerably above its long-term average. The extension to a three-factor model with stochastic interest rates leads to a different futures price but the forward price is unchanged. The extension of the three-factor model to include jumps in the spot price process does not affect forward or futures prices but it can have an impact on options prices. The model is applied to price the present value of future cash flows from a real asset.

We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that strategic considerations are important in shaping the cash policies of innovative firms. In our model, firms compete in product markets with uncertain structure using cash as a commitment device to invest in innovation. We show that firms’ equilibrium cash holdings are related to the expected intensity of competition. The sign and magnitude of this relation depends on firms’ financial constraints. Consistent with the strategic motive for hoarding cash, we show that firms’ cash holdings are negatively affected by their rivals’ cash-holding choices, even more so when competition is expected to be intense.

In October 2000, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) passed Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) in an effort to reduce selective disclosure of material information by firms to analysts and other investment professionals. We find that the information asymmetry reflected in trading costs at earnings announcements has declined after Regulation FD, with the decrease more pronounced for smaller and less liquid stocks. Return volatility around mandatory announcements is also lower but overall information flow is unchanged when mandatory and voluntary announcements are combined. Thus, the SEC appears to have diminished the advantage of informed investors, without increasing volatility.

Previous studies offer a mixed understanding of the economic role of stock repurchases. This paper investigates three key economic motivations—mispricing, disgorging free cash flow, and increasing leverage—by evaluating cross-sectional differences in both the initial market reaction and long-run performance. The initial reaction provides some support for the mispricing story. However, subsequent earnings-related information shocks suggest that the initial market reaction is incomplete and that long-run performance may be informative. The long-horizon return evidence is most consistent with the mispricing hypothesis and, to some degree, the free cash flow hypothesis. We find little support for the leverage hypothesis.

Prior research posits that market imperfections and the lack of institutions that protect investor interests create a divergence between the cost of internal and external funds, thereby constraining firms' ability to fund investment projects through external financing. Financial constraints force firms to manage their cash flows to finance potentially profitable projects. A related stream of research documents that financial constraints due to costly external financing are more pronounced in underdeveloped financial markets. We examine the influence of financial development on the demand for liquidity by focusing on how financial development affects the sensitivity of firms' cash holdings to their cash flows. Using firm-level data for 35 countries covering about 12,782 firms for the years 1994–2002, we find the sensitivity of cash holdings to cash flows decreases with financial development. We also consider additional implications of firms' cash flow sensitivity of cash with respect to firm size and business cycles. Overall, we provide new cross-country evidence of the role of financial development on financial constraints.

We model and examine the impact of information releases on market uncertainty as measured by the implied standard deviation (ISD) from option markets. Distinguishing between scheduled and unscheduled announcements, we hypothesize that since the timing, although not the content, of scheduled announcements is known a priori, the pre-release ISD will impound the anticipated impact of important releases on price volatility and that the ISD will normally decline post-release as this uncertainty is resolved. Conversely, we hypothesize that the unexpected high volatility caused by major unscheduled releases will cause market participants to adjust upward their estimates of likely volatility over the remaining life of the option resulting in an increase in the ISD. Our evidence supports both hypotheses. The ISDs that we consider are from the T-Bond, Eurodollar, and Deutschemark options markets. We examine scheduled macroeconomic news releases such as the employment report and the PPI. We also find that the observed tendency for the ISD to fall on Fridays and rise on Mondays is due to the weekday pattern of scheduled news releases.

We study the effect of antitakeover provisions (ATPs) on innovation. To establish causality, we use a regression discontinuity approach that relies on locally exogenous variation generated by shareholder proposal votes. We find a positive, causal effect of ATPs on innovation. This positive effect is more pronounced in firms that are subject to a larger degree of information asymmetry and operate in more competitive product markets. The evidence suggests that ATPs help nurture innovation by insulating managers from short-term pressures arising from equity markets. Finally, the number of ATPs contributes positively to firm value for firms involved in intensive innovation activities.

Strides have been made recently in the discovery and refinement of theoretical models which purport to describe the relationship between asset prices and their risk attributes. (See especially Lintner [13,14,15], Sharpe [19], Mosin [17,18] and Fama [7,8.9].) The models have gained widespread acceptance because of their intuitive appeal and because most reported empirical evidence [1,4,5,11,20,21] allegedly supports their predictive value. It is our purpose to analyze critically one aspect of the nature of this evidence, reveal its inherent weakness, and to design an alternative test to examine the risk-return function. After observing the performance of an extremely large number of issues over long periods of time, we find little support for the notion that risk premiums have, in fact, manifested themselves in realized rates of return.

We analyze the performance persistence in hedge funds taking into account look-ahead bias (multi-period sampling bias). We model liquidation of hedge funds by analyzing how it depends upon historical performance. Next, we use a weighting procedure that eliminates look-ahead bias in measures for performance persistence. In contrast to earlier results for mutual funds, the impact of look-ahead bias is exacerbated for hedge funds due to their greater level of total risk. At the four-quarter horizon, look-ahead bias can be as much as 3.8%, depending upon the decile of the distribution. We find positive persistence in hedge fund quarterly returns after correcting for investment style. The empirical pattern at the annual level is also consistent with positive persistence, but its statistical significance is weak.

This paper examines alternative methods for pricing options when the underlying security volatility is stochastic. We show that when there is no correlation between innovations in security price and volatility, the characteristic function of the average variance of the price process plays a pivotal role. It may be used to simplify Fourier option pricing techniques and to implement simple power series methods. We compare these methods for the alternative mean-reverting stochastic volatility models introduced by Stein and Stein (1991) and Heston (1993). We also examine the biases in the Black-Scholes model that are eliminated by allowing for stochastic volatility, and we correct some errors in the Stein and Stein (1991) analysis of this issue.

New cross-sectional tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis are presented. The tests assume that the distribution of the mixing variable (often interpreted as the daily rate of flow of information) is not identical for all securities. Cross-security differences in the mixing distribution cause cross-security differences in the joint distribution of returns and volume. The Hypothesis provides predictions about how these differences appear in the joint distribution. The predictions are confirmed in tests based on cross-security correlations among summary statistics that characterize shape and covariational attributes of the joint distribution of returns and volume. The results are consistent with the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis.

It is well known that stock returns, on average, are negative on Mondays. Yet, it is less well known that this finding is substantially the consequence of returns in prior trading sessions. When Friday's return is negative, Monday's return is negative nearly 80 percent of the time with a mean return of −0.61 percent. When Friday's return is positive, the subsequent Monday's mean return is positive, 0.11 percent. This relationship is stronger than for any other pair of trading days and is most acute in small- and medium-size companies. The trading behavior of individual investors appears to be at least one factor contributing to this pattern. Individual investors are more active sellers of stock on Mondays, particularly following bad news in the market.