Numerous ice-sheet reconstructions of the last glacial cycle have been proposed, however due to limited geological evidence, reconstructing older Northern Hemisphere ice sheets remains a difficult exercise. Here we focus on the penultimate glacial maximum (PGM; ~140 ka BP) over the Northern Hemisphere. While some evidence of the PGM Eurasian ice-sheet extent were found, this is not the case for the corresponding Laurentide ice sheet. To improve the glaciological reconstructions of the PGM Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, we explore the parameter space of ice-sheet model uncertainties and carry out numerous univariate ice-sheet steady-state sensitivity simulations. We use two PGM climate simulations to force the ice-sheet model, differing in the prescribed Laurentide ice topography (small and large). The simulated Northern Hemisphere ice volume ranges from 124.7 to 152 m SLE when using the climate accounting for a small Laurentide ice sheet, which is compatible with global sea-level reconstructions of this period (−92 to −150 m). Conversely, using the climate simulation with a Laurentide ice sheet comparable in size to that of the last glacial maximum results in too large ice volumes. Changes in basal drag provide the upper bound ice volume of our experiments, whereas changes in the distribution of ice streams provide the lower bound.

Glaciers in Alaska are currently losing mass at a rate of ~−50 Gt a−1, one of the largest ice loss rates of any regional collection of mountain glaciers on Earth. Existing projections of Alaska's future sea-level contributions tend to be divergent and are not tied directly to regional observations. Here we develop a simple, regional observation-based projection of Alaska's future sea-level contribution. We compute a time series of recent Alaska glacier mass variability using monthly GRACE gravity fields from August 2002 through December 2014. We also construct a three-parameter model of Alaska glacier mass variability based on monthly ERA-Interim snowfall and temperature fields. When these three model parameters are fitted to the GRACE time series, the model explains 94% of the variance of the GRACE data. Using these parameter values, we then apply the model to simulated fields of monthly temperature and snowfall from the Community Earth System Model, to obtain predictions of mass variations through 2100. We conclude that mass loss rates may increase between −80 and −110 Gt a−1 by 2100, with a total sea-level rise contribution of 19 ± 4 mm during the 21st century.

Rapid dynamic changes of ocean-terminating outlet glaciers of the Greenland ice sheet are related to atmospheric and oceanic warming but the detailed link to external forcing is not well understood. Observations show high variability in dynamic changes and are mainly limited to the past three decades with dense satellite observations. Here we compile a long-term record of dynamic changes of Eqip Sermia Glacier, West Greenland. Starting in 1912, we combine historical measurements of terminus positions, ice-surface elevation and flow velocity together with more recent in-situ and remote-sensing observations. In the 20th century, the glacier underwent small variations in terminus position and flow speed. Between 2000 and 2003, the terminus retreated substantially, but stabilized thereafter. In 2009, the northern terminus lobe started to retreat very rapidly; the southern lobe collapsed in 2013. The present terminus position, which has retreated by 4 km since 1920, is unprecedented in the historical record. Flow velocities were relatively stable until 2010. The recent acceleration reached threefold velocities in 2014 and rapidly affected the whole terminus region up to 15 km inland. Comparison with forcings from the atmosphere and the ocean over the past century shows that no dominant cause can be identified, and that local effects of bed geometry modulate the glacier response.

Microorganisms were the earliest inhabitants on our planet that occupy nearly every environment, and play a major role in biogeochemical cycles. Despite their global importance, there remains a paucity of data on microbial responses to long-term environmental and climatic changes. Microorganisms are known to be immured in glacial ice, but no high-resolution temporal records of their density exist, owing in large part to the lack of appropriate clean methodology that allows for rapid analysis of samples over depth. We describe a clean and time efficient method that can produce a high-temporal resolution record of prokaryotic density archived in ice cores. The method combines acquisition of discrete samples using a continuous ice-core melting system coupled with flow cytometry (FCM) of DNA-stained samples. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of the FCM measurement technique in terms of specificity, precision, accuracy and minimum detection limits. Examples from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core are included to show the efficacy of the method.

Windpumping has been identified as a process that could potentially enhance sublimation of surface snow at high forcing frequency and spawn air movement deeper in firn at lower frequencies. We performed an experiment to examine the relationship between high-frequency wind and pressure measurements within the top meter of an alpine snowpack and compared experimental results with two theoretical predictions. We find that both theoretical predictions underestimate high-frequency perturbation pressure attenuation with depth in the near-surface snowpack and the discrepancy between theory and measurement increases with perturbation pressure frequency. The impact of this result for near-surface snow is that potential enhanced sublimation will occur over a shallower snow depth than these two theories predict. Correspondingly, interstitial air mixing at depth in firn will be driven by lower frequencies than these two theories predict. While direct measurement of these energy-rich lower frequencies is beyond the scope of this paper, stationary pressure measurements validate the presence of a pressure field that could drive near-surface circulation.

Mass losses originating from supraglacial ice cliffs at the lower tongues of debris-covered glaciers are a potentially large component of the mass balance, but have rarely been quantified. In this study, we develop a method to estimate ice cliff volume losses based on high-resolution topographic data derived from terrestrial and aerial photogrammetry. We apply our method to six cliffs monitored in May and October 2013 and 2014 using four different topographic datasets collected over the debris-covered Lirung Glacier of the Nepalese Himalayas. During the monsoon, the cliff mean backwasting rate was relatively consistent in 2013 (3.8 ± 0.3 cm w.e. d−1) and more heterogeneous among cliffs in 2014 (3.1 ± 0.7 cm w.e. d−1), and the geometric variations between cliffs are larger. Their mean backwasting rate is significantly lower in winter (October 2013–May 2014), at 1.0 ± 0.3 cm w.e. d−1. These results are consistent with estimates of cliff ablation from an energy-balance model developed in a previous study. The ice cliffs lose mass at rates six times higher than estimates of glacier-wide melt under debris, which seems to confirm that ice cliffs provide a large contribution to total glacier melt.

Rapidly-flowing ice streams are an important mechanism through which ice sheets lose mass, and much work has been focussed on elucidating the processes that increase or decrease their velocity. Recent work using standard inverse methods has inferred previously-unrecognised regular patterns of high basal shear stress (‘sticky spots’ >200 kPa) beneath a number of ice streams in Antarctica and Greenland, termed ‘traction ribs’. They appear at a scale intermediate between smaller ribbed moraines and much larger mega-ribs observed on palaeo-ice sheet beds, but it is unclear whether they have a topographic expression at the bed. Here, we report observations of rib-like bedforms from DEMs along palaeo-ice stream beds in western Canada that resemble both the pattern and dimensions of traction ribs. Their identification suggests that traction ribs may have a topographic expression that lies between, and partly overlaps with, ribbed moraines and much larger mega-ribs. These intermediate-sized bedforms support the notion of a ribbed bedform continuum. Their formation remains conjectural, but our observations from palaeo-ice streams, coupled with those from modern ice masses, suggest they are related to wave-like instabilities occurring in the coupled flow of ice and till and modulated by subglacial meltwater drainage. Their form and pattern may also involve glaciotectonism of subglacial sediments.

Cryoconite holes can be important sources and stores of water and nutrients on cold and polythermal glaciers, and they provide a habitat for various forms of biota. Understanding the hydrological connectivity of cryoconite holes may be the key to understanding the transport of nutrients and biological material to the proglacial areas of such glaciers. This paper aims to characterize and explain spatial variability in the connectivity of ice-lidded cryoconite holes on a small, piedmont glacier in the McMurdo Dry Valleys through geochemical analysis of cryoconite hole waters. Solute concentrations in both surface and near-surface ice and cryoconite holes, vary greatly along the glacier centerline, and all sample types displayed similar spatial patterns of variability. Using chloride as a tracer, we estimated variations in cryoconite hole connectivity along the glacier centerline. We found that a previously used mass transfer method did not provide reliable estimates of the time period for which cryoconite hole waters had been isolated from the atmosphere. We attribute this to spatial variability in both the chloride content of the surface ice and surface ablation rates. The approach may, however, be used to qualitatively characterize spatial variations in the hydrological connectivity of the cryoconite holes. These results also suggest that ice-lidded cryoconite holes are never truly isolated from the near-surface drainage system.

In snow avalanche long-term forecasting, existing risk-based methods remain difficult to use in a real engineering context. In this work, we expand a quasi analytical decisional model to obtain simple formulae to quantify risk and to perform the optimal design of an avalanche dam in a quick and efficient way. Specifically, the exponential runout model is replaced by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), which has theoretical justifications that promote its use for modelling the different possible runout tail behaviours. Regarding the defence structure/flow interaction, a simple law based on kinetic energy dissipation is compared with a law based on the volume stored upstream of the dam, whose flexibility allows us to cope with various types of snow. We show how a detailed sensitivity study can be conducted, leading to intervals and bounds for risk estimates and optimal design values. Application to a typical case study from the French Alps, highlights potential operational difficulties and how they can be tackled. For instance, the highest sensitivity to the runout tail type and interaction law is found at abscissas of legal importance for hazard zoning (return periods of 10–1000 a), a crucial result for practical purposes.

Along the base of glaciers and ice sheets, the sliding of ice over till depends critically on water drainage. In locations where drainage occurs through Röthlisberger channels, the effective pressure along the base of the ice increases and can lead to a strengthening of the bed, which reduces glacier sliding. The formation of Röthlisberger channels depends on two competing effects: (1) melting from turbulent dissipation opens the channel walls and (2) creep flow driven by the weight of the overlying ice closes the channels radially inward. Variation in downstream ice velocity along the channel axis, referred to as an antiplane shear strain rate, decreases the effective viscosity. The softening of the ice increases creep closure velocities. In this way, even a modest addition of antiplane shear can double the size of the Röthlisberger channels for a fixed water pressure or allow channels of a fixed radius to operate at lower effective pressure, potentially decreasing the strength of the surrounding bed. Furthermore, we show that Röthlisberger channels can be deformed away from a circular cross section under applied antiplane shear. These results can have broad impacts on sliding velocities and potentially affect the total ice flux out of glaciers and ice streams.

Glacier basal motion generates diurnal to multi-annual fluctuations in glacier velocity and mass flux. Understanding these fluctuations is important for prediction of future sea-level rise and for gaining insight into glacier physics and erosion. Here, we derive glacier velocity through cross-correlation of WorldView satellite imagery to document the evolution of ice surface velocity on Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, over the 2013 melt season. The summer speedup is spatially uniform over a ~12 km2 area, over which the spring velocity varies significantly. Velocity increases by 1.4-fold to tenfold across the study domain, with larger values where spring velocities are low. To investigate the cross-glacier distribution of basal motion required to explain the observed surface speedup, we employ a two-dimensional cross-sectional glacier flow model. We find the model is insensitive to the spatial distribution of basal slip because stress gradient ice coupling diffuses the surface expression of the basal velocity field. While the temporal evolution of the subglacial hydrologic system is critical for predicting a glacier's response to meltwater inputs, our work suggests that glacier and ice-sheet models do not require a detailed representation of subglacial hydrology to accurately capture the spatial pattern of glacier speedup.

To explore links between glacier dynamics, sediment yields and the accumulation of glacial sediments in a temperate setting, we use extensive glaciological observations for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, and new oceanographic data from the fjord exposed during its retreat. High-resolution seismic data indicate that 3.2 × 108 m3 of sediment has accumulated in Columbia Fjord over the past three decades, which corresponds to ~5 mm a−1 of erosion averaged over the glaciated area. We develop a general model to infer the sediment-flux history from the glacier that is compatible with the observed retreat history, and the thickness and architecture of the fjord sediment deposits. Results reveal a fivefold increase in sediment flux from 1997 to 2000, which is not correlated with concurrent changes in ice flux or retreat rate. We suggest the flux increase resulted from an increase in the sediment transport capacity of the subglacial hydraulic system due to the retreat-related steepening of the glacier surface over a known subglacial deep basin. Because variations in subglacial sediment storage can impact glacial sediment flux, in addition to changes in climate, erosion rate and glacier dynamics, the interpretation of climatic changes based on the sediment record is more complex than generally assumed.

The presence of water-filled crevasses is known to increase the penetration depth of crevasses and this has been hypothesized to play an important role controlling iceberg calving rate. Here, we develop a continuum-damage-based poro-mechanics formulation that enables the simulation of water-filled basal and surface crevasse propagation. The formulation incorporates a scalar isotropic damage variable into a Maxwell-type viscoelastic constitutive model for glacial ice, and the effect of the water pressure on fracture propagation using the concept of effective solid stress. We illustrate the model by simulating quasi-static hydrofracture in idealized rectangular slabs of ice in contact with the ocean. Our results indicate that water-filled basal crevasses only propagate when the water pressure is sufficiently large, and that the interaction between simultaneously propagating water-filled surface and basal crevasses can have a mutually positive influence leading to deeper crevasse propagation, which can critically affect glacial stability. Therefore, this study supports the hypothesis that hydraulic fracture is a plausible mechanism for the accelerated breakdown of glaciers.