A systematic literature review was performed on full economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions using disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as outcome measure. The search was limited to the period between 1994 and September 2011 and conducted in Medline, SciSearch and EMBASE databases. We included 154 studies, mostly targeting HIV/AIDS and malaria with most conducted for African countries (40%) and <10% in high-income countries. Third-payer perspective was applied in 29% of the studies, 25% used the societal perspective and 12% used both. Only 16% of the studies took indirect effects (i.e. herd immunity) of interventions into account. Intervention, direct healthcare and indirect non-healthcare costs were taken into account in respectively 100%, 81% and 36% of the studies. The majority of the studies followed the Global Burden of Disease method for DALY estimations, but most studies deviated from WHO cost-effectiveness guidelines. Better adherence to freely accessible guidelines will improve generalizability between full economic evaluations.

Strongyloides stercoralis is rarely recognized as a major public health issue, probably because its burden is largely underestimated. We reviewed the literature (both PubMed and ‘grey’ literature) about the prevalence of strongyloidiasis in Latin America, an area of presumable high endemicity. There were finally 88 papers involved in the analysis, covering the period between 1981 and 2011. Studies were heterogeneous in several aspects, such as the populations screened and the diagnostic methods used. Most of the studies relied on direct coproparasitological examination, which has low sensitivity for the detection of S. stercoralis larvae. The following countries presented areas of high prevalence (>20%): Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru and Brazil. Globally, for most of the included countries it was not possible to define reliable data because of paucity and/or inadequacy of studies. S. stercoralis requires specific diagnostic methods for its detection; therefore, surveys should be specifically designed in order to avoid underestimation of the infection.

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are similarly structured viruses with similar environmental survival, but different routes of transmission. While RSV is transmitted predominantly by direct and indirect contact, influenza is also transmitted by aerosol. The cold, dry conditions of temperate winters appear to encourage the transmission of both viruses, by increasing influenza virus survival in aerosols, and increasing influenza and RSV survival on surfaces. In contrast, the hot, wet conditions of tropical rainy seasons appear to discourage aerosol transmission of influenza, by reducing the amount of influenza virus that is aerosolized, and probably also by reducing influenza survival in aerosol. The wet conditions of tropical rainy seasons may, however, encourage contact transmission of both viruses, by increasing the amount of virus that is deposited on surfaces, and by increasing virus survival in droplets on surfaces. This evidence suggests that the increased incidence of influenza and RSV in tropical rainy seasons may be due to increased contact transmission. This hypothesis is consistent with the observation that tropical rainy seasons appear to encourage the transmission of RSV more than influenza. More research is required to examine the environmental survival of respiratory viruses in the high humidity and temperature of the tropics.

We conducted a systematic review to compare resistance to third-generation cephalosporins (TGCs) in Shigella strains between Europe-America and Asia-Africa from 1998 to 2012 based on a literature search of computerized databases. In Asia-Africa, the prevalence of resistance of total and different subtypes to ceftriaxone, cefotaxime and ceftazidime increased markedly, with a total prevalence of resistance up to 14·2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3·9–29·4], 22·6% (95% CI 4·8–48·6) and 6·2% (95% CI 3·8–9·1) during 2010–2012, respectively. By contrast, resistance rates to these TGCs in Europe-America remained relatively low – less than 1·0% during the 15 years. A noticeable finding was that certain countries both in Europe-America and Asia-Africa, had a rapid rising trend in the prevalence of resistance of S. sonnei, which even outnumbered S. flexneri in some periods. Moreover, comparison between countries showed that currently the most serious problem concerning resistance to these TGCs appeared in Vietnam, especially for ceftriaxone, China, especially for cefotaxime and Iran, especially for ceftazidime. These data suggest that monitoring of the drug resistance of Shigella strains should be strengthened and that rational use of antibiotics is required.

Foodborne illness is a major cause of morbidity and loss of productivity in developed nations. Although low socioeconomic status (SES) is generally associated with negative health outcomes, its impact on foodborne illness is poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review to examine the association between SES and laboratory-confirmed illness caused by eight important foodborne pathogens. We completed this systematic review using PubMed for all papers published between 1 January 1980 and 1 January 2013 that measured the association between foodborne illness and SES in highly developed countries and identified 16 studies covering four pathogens. The effect of SES varied across pathogens: the majority of identified studies for Campylobacter, salmonellosis, and E. coli infection showed an association between high SES and illness. The single study of listeriosis showed illness was associated with low SES. A reporting bias by SES could not be excluded. SES should be considered when targeting consumer-level public health interventions for foodborne pathogens.

This systematic review–meta-analysis appraises and summarizes all the available research (128 papers) on the zoonotic potential of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis. The latter has been debated for a century due to pathogenic and clinical similarities between Johne's disease in ruminants and Crohn's disease (108 studies) in humans and recently for involvement in other human diseases; human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (2), sarcoidosis (3), diabetes mellitus type 1 (T1DM) (7) and type 2 (3), multiple sclerosis (5) and Hashimoto's thyroiditis (2). Meta-analytical results indicated a significant positive association, consistently across different laboratory methods for Crohn's disease [odds ratio (OR) range 4·26–8·44], T1DM (OR range 2·91–9·95) and multiple sclerosis (OR range 6·5–7·99). The latter two and the thyroiditis hypothesis require further investigation to confirm the association. Meta-regression of Crohn's disease studies using DNA detection methods indicated that choice of primers and sampling frame (e.g. general population vs. hospital-based sample) explained a significant proportion of heterogeneity. Other epidemiological studies demonstrated a lack of association between high-risk occupations and development of Crohn's disease. Due to knowledge gaps in understanding the role of M. paratuberculosis in the development or progression of human disease, the evidence at present is not strong enough to inform the potential public health impact of M. paratuberculosis exposure.

In March 2013 the first cases of human avian influenza A(H7N9) were reported to the World Health Organization. Since that time, over 650 cases have been reported. Infections are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality, particularly within certain demographic groups. This rapid increase in cases over a brief time period is alarming and has raised concerns about the pandemic potential of the H7N9 virus. Three major factors influence the pandemic potential of an influenza virus: (1) its ability to cause human disease, (2) the immunity of the population to the virus, and (3) the transmission potential of the virus. This paper reviews what is currently known about each of these factors with respect to avian influenza A(H7N9). Currently, sustained human-to-human transmission of H7N9 has not been reported; however, population immunity to the virus is considered very low, and the virus has significant ability to cause human disease. Several statistical and geographical modelling studies have estimated and predicted the spread of the H7N9 virus in humans and avian species, and some have identified potential risk factors associated with disease transmission. Additionally, assessment tools have been developed to evaluate the pandemic potential of H7N9 and other influenza viruses. These tools could also hypothetically be used to monitor changes in the pandemic potential of a particular virus over time.

Syphilis is a chronic, multi-stage infectious disease that is usually transmitted sexually by contact with an active lesion of a partner or congenitally from an infected pregnant woman to her fetus. Although syphilis is still endemic in many developing countries, it has re-emerged in several developed countries. The resurgence of syphilis is a major concern to global public health, particularly since the lesions of early syphilis increase the risk of acquisition and transmission of infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Because there is no vaccine to prevent syphilis, control is mainly dependent on the identification and treatment of infected individuals and their contacts with penicillin G, the first-line drug for all stages of syphilis. The emergence of clinically significant azithromycin resistance in Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum, the syphilis agent, has resulted in treatment failures, thus precluding the routine use of this second-line drug. Information is presented here on the diagnosis and recommended antibiotic treatment of syphilis and the challenge of macrolide-resistant T. pallidum.

General Practitioner consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) are monitored through several geographically distinct schemes in the UK, providing early warning to government and health services of community circulation and intensity of activity each winter. Following on from the 2009 pandemic, there has been a harmonization initiative to allow comparison across the distinct existing surveillance schemes each season. The moving epidemic method (MEM), proposed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for standardizing reporting of ILI rates, was piloted in 2011/12 and 2012/13 along with the previously proposed UK method of empirical percentiles. The MEM resulted in thresholds that were lower than traditional thresholds but more appropriate as indicators of the start of influenza virus circulation. The intensity of the influenza season assessed with the MEM was similar to that reported through the percentile approach. The MEM pre-epidemic threshold has now been adopted for reporting by each country of the UK. Further work will continue to assess intensity of activity and apply standardized methods to other influenza-related data sources.

Household contacts of an index case of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) are at increased risk of acquiring disease. In revising WHO guidance on IMD in sub-Saharan Africa, a systematic review was undertaken to assess the effect of chemoprophylaxis and of vaccination in preventing subsequent cases of IMD in household contacts following an index case. A literature search for systematic reviews identified a single suitable review on chemoprophylaxis in 2004 (three studies meta-analysed). A search for primary research papers published since 2004 on chemoprophylaxis and without a date limit on vaccination was therefore undertaken. There were 2381 studies identified of which two additional studies met the inclusion criteria. The summary risk ratio for chemoprophylaxis vs. no chemoprophylaxis (four studies) in the 30-day period after a case was 0·16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·04-0·64, P = 0·008]; the number needed to treat to prevent one subsequent case was 200 (95% CI 111-1000). A single quasi-randomized trial assessed the role of vaccination. The risk ratio for vaccination vs. no vaccination at 30 days was 0·11 (95% CI 0·01–2·07, P = 0·14). The results support the use of chemoprophylaxis to prevent subsequent cases of IMD in household contacts of a case. Conclusions about the use of vaccination could not be drawn.

Disease prioritization is motivated by the need to ensure that limited resources are targeted at the most important problems to achieve the greatest benefit in improving and maintaining human and animal health. Studies have prioritized a range of disease types, for example, zoonotic and foodborne diseases, using a range of criteria that describe potential disease impacts. This review describes the progression of disease prioritization methodology from ad hoc techniques to decision science methods (including multi-criteria decision analysis, conjoint analysis and probabilistic inversion), and describes how these methods aid defensible resource allocation. We discuss decision science in the context of disease prioritization to then review the development of disease prioritization studies. Structuring the prioritization and assessing decision-makers' preferences through value trade-offs between criteria within the decision context are identified as key factors that ensure transparency and reproducibility. Future directions for disease prioritization include the development of validation techniques, guidelines for model selection and neuroeconomics to gain a deeper understanding of decision-making.

Q fever, first described in 1937, is a worldwide zoonosis caused by Coxiella burnetii that has long been considered an under-reported and under-diagnosed illness. In China, the disease was initially reported in 1950 and in the last 25 years (1989–2013) there have been 29 reports on Q fever in China, nearly half of which were in the last 5 years. These publications have largely been in Chinese and in this review we summarize their findings to enable a better understanding of Q fever in China. The overall prevalence of C. burnetii infections in the reports is 10% (1139/11 209) in people, 15% (288/1918) in cattle and 12% (176/1440) in goats. These infections occurred widely in China with positive people and/or animals reported in 64 cities/municipalities from 19 provinces, particularly those in the eastern, western and northern areas. Cattle and goats had the highest seroprevalences of all the domestic animals studied and a wide variety of ticks were found to be infected. Mice were also commonly infected and had high copy numbers of C. burnetii DNA, suggesting they might be important in the epidemiology of Q fever in China.

The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to estimate the proportion of cases of non-typhoidal salmonellosis (NTS) that develop chronic sequelae, and to investigate factors associated with heterogeneity. Articles published in English prior to July 2011 were identified by searching PubMed, Agricola, CabDirect, and Food Safety and Technology Abstracts. Observational studies reporting the number of NTS cases that developed reactive arthritis (ReA), Reiter's syndrome (RS), haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS), irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) or Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS), Miller–Fisher syndrome (MFS) were included. Meta-analysis was performed using random effects and heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 value. Meta-regression was used to explore the influence of study-level variables on heterogeneity. A total of 32 studies were identified; 25 reported on ReA, five reported on RS, seven reported on IBS, two reported on IBD, two reported on GBS, one reported on MFS, and two reported on HUS. There was insufficient data in the literature to calculate a pooled estimate for RS, HUS, IBD, GBS, or MFS. The pooled estimate of the proportion of cases of NTS that developed ReA and IBS had substantive heterogeneity, limiting the applicability of a single estimate. Thus, these estimates should be interpreted with caution and reasons for the high heterogeneity should be further explored.

The prison setting has been often cited as a possible reservoir of tuberculosis (TB) including multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB. This is particularly true in low-income, high TB prevalence countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. A systemic literature review was done to assess the prevalence, drug resistance and risk factors for acquiring TB in the prison population. Our review indicated a high prevalence of TB in prisons which is reported to be 3- to 1000-fold higher than that found in the civilian population, indicating evidence and the need for public health policy formulation. In addition, high levels of MDR and extensively drug-resistant (XDR)-TB have been reported from prisons, which is a warning call to review prison TB control strategy. Multiple risk factors such as overcrowding, poor ventilation, malnutrition, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and others have fuelled the spread of TB in prisons. Furthermore, the impact extends beyond the prison walls; it affects the civilian population, because family visits, prison staff, and members of the judiciary system could be potential portals of exit for TB transmission. The health of prisoners is a neglected political and scientific issue. Within these background conditions, it is suggested that political leaders and scientific communities should work together and give special attention to the control of TB and MDR-TB in prisons. If not, TB in prisons will remain a neglected global problem and threatens national and international TB control programmes. Further researches are required on the prevalence and drug resistance of smear-negative TB in prisons. In addition, evidence of the circulating strains and transmission dynamics inside prisons is also warranted.

We conducted a systematic review summarizing data on incidence of high- and low-grade lesions in women with normal baseline cervical cytology, stratified by age (<30 and ⩾30 years), and baseline human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Incidence of high- and low-grade lesions in women aged ⩾30 years with a baseline HPV infection increased over follow-up time (5–127 months), although incidence generally remained <10%. Without baseline HPV infection, incidence of high-grade lesions remained low over follow-up time (<5% over 5–122 months). Incidence of high-grade lesions in women aged ⩾30 years with baseline HPV infection appeared similar to that in women aged <30 years. In some women aged <30 years, high-grade lesions can develop relatively shortly after initial HPV infection. We observed an increase in low-grade lesions over time in women aged ⩾30 years with baseline HPV infection, potentially indicative of an HPV infection that is potentially progressing to higher grade lesions.

The age distribution of influenza A(H5N1) cases reported during 2006–2013 varied substantially between countries. As well as underlying demographic profiles, it is possible that cross-immunity contributed to the age distribution of reported cases: seasonal influenza A(H1N1) and avian influenza A(H5N1) share the same neuraminidase subtype, N1. Using a mechanistic model, we measured the extent to which population age distribution and heterosubtypic cross-immunity could explain the observed age patterns in Cambodia, China, Egypt, Indonesia and Vietnam. Our results support experimental evidence that prior infection with H1N1 confers partial cross-immunity to H5N1, and suggest that more than 50% of spillover events did not lead to reported cases of infection as a result. We also identified age groups that have additional risk factors for influenza A(H5N1) not captured by demography or infection history.

We describe two cases of infant botulism due to Clostridium butyricum producing botulinum type E neurotoxin (BoNT/E) and a previously unreported environmental source. The infants presented at age 11 days with poor feeding and lethargy, hypotonia, dilated pupils and absent reflexes. Faecal samples were positive for C. butyricum BoNT/E. The infants recovered after treatment including botulism immune globulin intravenous (BIG-IV). C. butyricum BoNT/E was isolated from water from tanks housing pet ‘yellow-bellied’ terrapins (Trachemys scripta scripta): in case A the terrapins were in the infant's home; in case B a relative fed the terrapin prior to holding and feeding the infant when both visited another relative. C. butyricum isolates from the infants and the respective terrapin tank waters were indistinguishable by molecular typing. Review of a case of C. butyricum BoNT/E botulism in the UK found that there was a pet terrapin where the infant was living. It is concluded that the C. butyricum-producing BoNT type E in these cases of infant botulism most likely originated from pet terrapins. These findings reinforce public health advice that reptiles, including terrapins, are not suitable pets for children aged <5 years, and highlight the importance of hand washing after handling these pets.

In this paper we propose a debate on the role of mathematical models in evaluating control strategies for vector-borne infections. Mathematical models must have their complexity adjusted to their goals, and we have basically two classes of models. At one extreme we have models that are intended to check if our intuition about why a certain phenomenon occurs is correct. At the other extreme, we have models whose goals are to predict future outcomes. These models are necessarily very complex. There are models in between these classes. Here we examine two models, one of each class and study the possible pitfalls that may be incurred. We begin by showing how to simplify the description of a complicated model for a vector-borne infection. Next, we examine one example found in a recent paper that illustrates the dangers of basing control strategies on models without considering their limitations. The model in this paper is of the second class. Following this, we review an interesting paper (a model of the first class) that contains some biological assumptions that are inappropriate for dengue but may apply to other vector-borne infections. In conclusion, we list some misgivings about modelling presented in this paper for debate.

In general, tuberculosis (TB) is more common in men than women. However, for reasons currently not understood, women are 1·5–2 times more likely to report TB compared to men in Pashtun region (Afghanistan, adjacent provinces Pakistan and Iran). We explored whether or not gender disparity in TB notifications in the Pashtun region of Pakistan can be explained by Pashtun ethnicity. Using an ecological linear regression design, we estimated the effect of Pashtun ethnicity on female-to-male ratio (FMR) in TB notifications after adjusting for other determinants of women's health, in Pakistan. Districts with a high proportion of women of Pashtun ethnicity had a 44% (95% confidence interval 27–61) increase in FMR of notified TB cases compared to those with low proportions, after controlling for confounders. Genetic predisposition and distinct socio-cultural determinants could be possible causative factors. However, these hypotheses need further evaluation through rigorous longitudinal studies.