In the empirical finance literature, findings on the risk-return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, I develop a new qualitative response (QR)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean (GARCH-M) model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime-switching GARCH-M model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. However, consistent with the conditional intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), there is a positive risk-return relationship between volatility and expected return independent of the state of the economy.

We investigate the risk choices of risk-averse CEOs. Following recent theoretical work, we expect CEO risk aversion to be more pronounced in firms with high leverage or high default probability. We find that the CEOs of these firms reduce firm risk, even in the presence of strong risk-taking incentives. Our results are robust to controls for the sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock price changes, firm risk determinants, the endogenous feedback effects of firm risk on CEO incentives, unobserved firm and market effects, and debt governance. The impact of CEO risk aversion is economically significant.

Hundreds of equity market intelligence financial technology firms (FinTechs) have formed in the last decade. We assemble novel data to describe their capabilities, users, and consequences. Our data suggest that these FinTechs i) aggregate many data sources, including nontraditional ones (e.g., Twitter, blogs), and synthesize such data using artificial intelligence to make investment recommendations, and ii) change Internet users’ information discovery by serving as substitutes for traditional information providers. We evaluate some nontraditional data and find evidence suggesting that such data contain valuable information or “crowd wisdom” that links to informational efficiency. Overall, our findings are consistent with this innovation benefiting investors and markets.

In this paper we examine the relation between equity mispricing and arbitrage risk and find that stocks with high arbitrage risk have higher estimated mispricing than stocks with low arbitrage risk. These results are not limited to high book-to-market or small capitalization stocks, and they are not sensitive to transaction and short-selling costs. In addition, they remain robust to alternative multifactor return generating specification models and mispricing measures. Overall, our empirical results are consistent with the conjecture that mispricing is a manifestation of the inability of arbitrageurs to hedge idiosyncratic risk, a major deterrent to arbitrage activity.

Using stock returns around recommendation changes to measure the information produced by analysts, I find that analysts produce more firm-specific than industry-level information. Analysts produce more firm-specific information on stocks with higher idiosyncratic return volatilities. The amount of industry information produced by analysts increases with the absolute value of the stock’s industry beta and decreases with the stock’s idiosyncratic volatility. Other stocks in the industry also respond to the recommendation change, and the magnitude of the response increases with the absolute value of the industry beta of the recommended stock and that of other stocks in the industry. I also offer results on how investors may use analyst research more effectively and potentially improve their investment performance.

We examine the impact of influenza on stock markets. For the United States, a higher incidence of flu is associated with decreased trading, decreased volatility, decreased returns, and higher bid-ask spreads. Consistent with the flu affecting institutional investors and market makers, the decrease in trading activity and volatility is primarily driven by the incidence of influenza in the greater New York City area. However, the effect of the flu on bid-ask spreads and returns is related to the incidence of flu nationally. International data confirm our findings of a decrease in trading activity and returns when flu incidence is high.

The normative procedures of Markowitz [4], Sharpe [6], and others can be utilized to determine an optimal portfolio (set of security holdings) given estimates of risk, relevant constraints, and expected returns on securities. Building on these foundations, the positive models of Sharpe [7], Lintner [3], Mossin [5], and others assume that investors form portfolios as if they were following such procedures. We observe considerable differences in portfolio composition, some of which undoubtedly stem from differences in expectations. Yet the predictions of most investors are either made implicitly or, if made explicitly, are jealously guarded and hence cannot be observed by outsiders.

An intermarket sweep order (ISO) is a limit order that automatically executes in a designated market center even if another market center is publishing a better quotation. An investor submitting an ISO must satisfy order protection rules by concurrently submitting orders to the markets with better prices. We find that ISOs represent 46% of trades and 41% of volume in our sample. ISO trades have a significantly larger information share despite their small trade size relative to non-ISO trades. Post trade return analysis suggests that informed institutions are the main users of ISO trades.

This paper documents the short- and long-term balance sheet effect of cash flows. We show that cash savings in the short run and debt reduction in both the short and the long run account for a substantial fraction of cash flow use. Although, in the long run, investment exhibits substantial sensitivity to cash flows, investment does not absorb the entire cash flow shock. In fact, the tighter the financial constraints, the smaller the fraction of cash flow absorbed by investment and the more by leverage reduction. Firms stage their response to increases in cash flow, delaying investment while building up cash stocks and reducing leverage. These results suggest that much of the short-run economic effect of cash flow shocks to the corporate sector may be channeled into the corporate debt market rather than the capital goods market, especially when financing constraints tighten.

We develop empirical tests for stochastic dominance efficiency of a given investment portfolio relative to all possible portfolios formed from a given set of assets. Our tests use multivariate statistics, which result in superior statistical power properties compared to existing stochastic dominance efficiency tests and increase the comparability with existing mean-variance efficiency tests. Using our tests, we demonstrate that the mean-variance inefficiency of the CRSP all-share index relative to beta-sorted portfolios can be explained by tail risk not captured by variance.

Do bond-issuing firms attempt to choose the call, sinking fund, and term-to-maturity features of bonds to improve shareholder wealth? This paper develops and tests two hypotheses about the determinants of bond features using a conditional logistic model. The model is estimated on a sample of bonds issued between 1982 and 1986. Model estimates show that a bond's call, sinking fund, and term-to-maturity features are statistically related to the issuing firm's retention ratio, ratio of convertible to long-term debt, two-year change in net operating income, and whether the firm is listed on the NYSE and included in the S&P400. These findings support the view that firms financing highquality projects, but facing information asymmetries, choose shorter-term (medium-term) callable bonds with and without the sinking fund feature.

We analyze the bank supply of credit under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The literature emphasizes relationships as a means to improve lender information, which helps banks manage credit risk. Despite imposing no risk, however, the PPP supply reflects traditional measures of relationship lending: decreasing in bank size and increasing in prior experience, commitment lending, and core deposits. Our results suggest a new benefit of bank relationships: They help firms access government-subsidized lending. Consistent with this benefit, we show that the bank PPP supply, based on the structure of the local banking sector, alleviates increases in unemployment.

Many financial markets, including electronic limit order markets, assign designated liquidity providers (LPs). We study the experience of the Stockholm Stock Exchange, where listed firms contract directly with LPs. Our analysis offers insights regarding situations where designated liquidity provision may be beneficial. In addition, we consider the form of liquidity provision contracts, including affirmative obligations required of the LP and compensation for LP services. We find that low current trading activity, wide spreads, and higher information asymmetry increase the attractiveness of contracted liquidity provision. The evidence indicates that LPs trade against market movements and in times of wide spreads. On balance, firms contracting with LPs experience a decreased cost of capital and significant improvements in market quality and price discovery.

I investigate whether bank exposures to sovereign debt during the European debt crisis affected the real economy. I show that a shock to the marked-to-market (MTM) value of bank exposures to sovereign debt led to credit tightening in 2010–2011 that had negative real effects on small and young firms. Because banks do not usually mark their holdings of sovereign bonds to market, I explore the transmission channels of the unrealized losses on credit supply. I show that a shock to MTM exposures reduced short-term bank funding from U.S. money market funds rather than affecting equity or working through alternative channels.

Using a cross-country sample, we examine the chief executive officer (CEO) tournament structure (measured alternatively as the ratio and the difference of pay between the CEO and other top executives within a firm). We find the tournament structure to vary systematically with firm and country cultural characteristics. In particular, firm size and the cultural values of power distance, fair income differences, and competition are significantly associated with variations in tournament structures. We also establish support for the primary implication of tournament theory in that tournament structure tends to be positively related to firm value, even after controlling for endogeneity.

Suppose the ICAPM governs asset prices and there is a total of S state variables that might be of hedging concern to investors. Can we determine which state variables are, in fact, of hedging concern? What does it mean to say that these state variables are priced, that is, that they give rise to special risk premiums in expected returns? The goal of this paper is to formulate this problem clearly and show when it can and cannot be solved. Ignoring estimation problems, it is possible to find the set of priced state variables when the state variables are identified (named). When we know the number of state variables, but not their names, confident conclusions about even the number of them that produce special risk premiums are probably impossible, unless the number is zero, so the ICAPM collapses to the CAPM.

Hedgers are an integral element of most models of futures markets. They are typically viewed as involved in the storage or production process and attempting by futures market transactions to avoid price risk associated with holdings of the underlying commodity. Speculators accept the risk and receive compensation whose size is in considerable dispute. (Keynes [16], Telser [24], Cootner [6], Dusak [8]). This “insurance” view of hedging is sometimes expanded to allow for “discretionary” or “selective” hedging which tends to arise when expectations differ across individuals. Narrow models of hedging in the commodities market (Johnson [14], Heifner [11], Peck [19]), in the foreign exchange market (Ethier [9]), and in the bank loan market (Pyle [20]) as well as more general models of the determination of spot and futures prices that incorporate hedging (Stein [22]) have preceded or ignored the theory of equilibrium asset prices (Sharpe [21], Lintner [17]). On the other hand, recent models of the valuation of futures contrasts in capital market equilibrium have not considered the role of hedgers (Grauer and Litzenberger [10]).

Initial Public Offers (IPOs) made on the Stock Exchange of Singapore routinely provide sufficiently detailed data to allow reconstruction of both the application and allocation schedules. We show that large investors tend to preferentially request participation in IPOs with higher initial returns, consistent with these investors being better informed. We also show that inferences based exclusively on application strategies are quite different from those drawn on investor allocations. Our results suggest that caution is necessary in assessing the relative merit of competing explanations for IPO underpricing where the underlying demand is not identified.

This paper evaluates the conjecture that excess stock returns that have been documented around the announcement of corporate spin-offs represent, at least in part, the re-creation of value destroyed at the time of an earlier acquisition. We evaluate this question with a sample of spin-offs that originated as earlier acquisitions. At the time of the original acquisition, on average, announcement period returns to the bidder and the combined bidder and target firm are negative and significant. Additionally, announcement period returns at the time of the spin-off are negatively and significantly correlated with acquisition announcement period returns.

Price declines over the previous quarter lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent 2 months. We explain this finding based on the dual notions that liquidity provision can influence reversals and that agents who act as de facto liquidity providers may be less active in past losers. Supporting these observations, we find that active institutions participate less in losing stocks and that the magnitude of monthly return reversals fluctuates with changes in the number of active institutional investors. Thus, we argue that fluctuations in liquidity provision with past return performance account for the link between return reversals and past returns.