Market prices of developing country debt reflect investors' views of country repayment capacity as well as other debt-specific factors. To extract a measure of repayment capacity from debt prices, adjustments need to be made to account for: debt values being a concave function of repayment capacity; the specific terms of the debt agreement; and the presence of third-party guarantees. This paper derives a measure of repayment capacity by constructing a pricing model that takes these factors into account. Applying the model to Brady bonds issued by Mexico, we find that estimated repayment capacity often performs differently from the unadjusted bond prices. We demonstrate that other Mexican bonds can be priced fairly accurately on the basis of this repayment capacity measure.

Stock flippers pose a problem for underwriters of initial public offerings (IPOs). They subscribe to the issue, but immediately resell their shares, which may depress the aftermarket price. This paper presents a model of how stock flippers affect IPO pricing. The model shows that the underwriter chooses whether to price the issue as a cold, weak, or hot IPO. Stock flippers have the greatest effect on pricing in weak IPOs and provide an explanation for underwriter stabilization. In contrast to existing models of stabilization, the underwriter gains from after-market purchases, particularly if the contract with the issuer includes an over-allotment option. The over-allotment option encourages a lower offer price, which may lead to under-pricing. These results correspond to recent findings on IPO returns and underwriter stabilization activities.

We examine the stock price reaction to earnings announcements in the five years following seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). On average, post-SEO earnings announcements are met with a significantly negative abnormal stock price reaction. Although this negative reaction accounts for a disproportionately large portion of long-run post-SEO abnormal stock returns, on average, abnormal stock price reactions to post-seo earnings announcements are reliably negative only within the smallest quartile of equity issuers. For small firms, therefore, these findings are broadly consistent with the hypothesis that firms issue equity when the market overestimates the firm's future earnings perfomance.

We examine stock index futures and Treasury futures around the release time of 30 U.S. macroeconomic announcements. Nine of the 20 announcements that move markets show evidence of substantial informed trading before the official release time. Prices begin to move in the “correct” direction approximately 30 minutes before the release time. The preannouncement price drift accounts on average for approximately 40% of the total price adjustment. This implies that some traders have private information about macroeconomic fundamentals. Preannouncement drift might originate from a combination of information leakage and superior forecasting that incorporates proprietary data.

Asymmetric information models suggest that a borrower’s choice of debt maturity depends on its private information about its default probabilities, that is, borrowers with favorable information prefer short-term debt while those with unfavorable information prefer long-term debt. We test this implication by tracing the evolution of debt issuers’ default risk following debt issuances. We find that short-term debt issuance leads to a decline inborrowers’ asset volatility and an increase in their distance to default. The opposite is true for long-term debt issues. The results suggest that borrowers’ private information about their default risk is an important determinant of their debt maturity choices.

This paper provides a direct test of the hypothesis that large January returns can be attributed to omitted risk factors. Data from 1926–1991 show that the January return in the smallest decile of NYSE firms dominates the January returns for all other deciles by the first-order stochastic dominance. Similarly, January returns in all deciles (with the exception of ninth and tenth deciles) dominate non-January returns by first-, second-, or third-order stochastic dominance. The presence of stochastic dominance by January returns suggests that the omitted risk factors are not likely to explain the January effect.

We analyze allocations to institutional and retail investors in 441 initial public offerings (IPOs). In addition to the well-known favorable first-day returns, we show that institutions also obtain more allocations in IPOs with better long-term performance. We find that initial institutional flips help predict future returns, suggesting that at least some institutions retain valuable private information about IPO firms. Collectively, these findings illustrate the importance of aftermarket relations between underwriters and investors and that underwriters have discretionary means to compensate IPO investors beyond first-day returns and price stabilization.

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) using U.S. monthly data for bond yields spanning the 1952–2003 sample period and ranging in maturity from one month to 10 years. We apply the Lagrange multiplier test developed by Bekaert and Hodrick (2001) and extend it to increase the test power by introducing economic variables as conditioning information and by using more than two bond yields in the model and testing the EH jointly on more than one pair of yields. While the conventional bivariate procedure provides mixed results, the more powerful testing procedures suggest rejection of the EH throughout the maturity spectrum examined.

Using a sample of over 9,000 buyback announcements from 31 non-U.S. countries, we find support for the results of studies based on U.S. data: On average, share repurchases are associated with significant positive short- and long-term excess returns. However, excess returns depend on the likelihood of undervaluation and the efficiency and liquidity of equity markets. In contrast to findings in U.S. markets, we do not find that these long-term excess returns are simply a compensation for takeover risk or have become less significant in recent years.

This study investigates the extent of information-motivated trading conditional on trade size in the options and stock markets. We find envidence that the options market is the primary venue for information trading only for small investors, whereas large ivestors do not necessarily trade options rather than stocks when they are informed. With different trading mechanisms in the stock and options markets, this finding implies that investors, when facing different impediments to information-related trading, select different vehicles to exploit their information. We also show that the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread decreases with option delta, implying that options with greater finanical leverage attract more informed investors. Overall, our results reinforce the notion that the options market is a venue for information-motivated trading.

We show that market volatility of volatility is a significant risk factor that affects index and volatility index option returns, beyond volatility itself. The volatility and volatility of volatility indices, identified model-free as the VIX and VVIX, respectively, are only weakly related to each other. Delta-hedged index and VIX option returns are negative on average and are more negative for strategies that are more exposed to volatility and volatility-of-volatility risks. Further, volatility and volatility of volatility significantly negatively predict future delta-hedged option payoffs. The evidence suggests that volatility and volatility-of-volatility risks are jointly priced and have negative market prices of risk.

This study uses a stochastic frontier approach to evaluate firm efficiency. The resulting efficiency score, based on firm characteristics, is the input for performance evaluation. The portfolio composed of highly efficient firms significantly underperforms the portfolio composed of inefficient firms even after adjustment for firm characteristics and risk factors, suggesting a required premium for the inefficient firms. The difference in performance between the two portfolios remains for at least five years after the portfolio formation year. In addition, firm efficiency exhibits significant explanatory power for average equity returns in cross-sectional analysis.

Recent theoretical and empirical work in portfolio theory has exhibited a natural evolution from the two-moment EV model popularized by Markowitz through the higher moment models to selection on the basis of the entire probability function. This latter approach, referred to as the Stochastic Dominance (SD) approach to portfolio selection, has been shown to be theoretically superior to all of the “moment methods” and has been the focus of an increasing volume of empirical work.

Fiscal deficits represent an important variable for banks’ aggregate credit risk, revealing governments’ ability to curb banks’ losses in bad states, either with direct cash infusions or with macroeconomic stabilization policies. Deteriorating deficits are associated with increasing financial distress of the banking sector and higher levels of loan-loss provisions. The effect is more pronounced for banks with a strong aversion to underprovisioning and is robust to a battery of tests and to the identification of fiscal shocks using military-spending data. This association represents an additional source of negative comovement between provisions and economic conditions, with implications for financial stability.

We examine a specific channel through which director connectedness may improve monitoring: financial reporting quality. We find that the connectedness of independent, non-co-opted audit committee members has a positive effect on financial reporting quality and accounting conservatism. The effect is not significant for non-audit committee or co-opted audit committee members. Our results are robust to tests designed to mitigate self-selection. Consistent with connected directors being valuable, the market reacts more negatively to the deaths of highly connected directors than to the deaths of less connected directors. Better connected directors also have better career prospects, suggesting they have greater incentives to monitor.

Controversy surrounds the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Rule 415 that went into effect in March 1982 and remained an experiment until it was permanenty adopted for large firms in November 1983. Rule 415allows a company to register all the securities it plans to issue over the next two years and then to sell someor all of the securities whenever it chooses. This procedure is known as a shelf registration. The purposes of Rule 415 are to simplify the registration of new corporate securities and to allow more flexibility in the way issues are underwritten.

This paper conducts empirical tests in a conditional setting for 10 developed and 12 emerging markets to determine whether emerging market currency risk is priced and if it spills over into developed market assets. Our empirical model is based on real exchange rate measures and it allows currency risk to compete with broader economic and political risks. We find that emerging market currency risk is priced separately from other local risk factors and that it represents a significant component of equity returns in both developed and emerging markets. We also find that the spillover impact is heightened during emerging market crisis episodes and affects the expected compensation for global risks.

We derive a macroeconomic asset pricing model in which the key factor is the opportunity cost of money. The model explains well the cross section of stock returns in addition to the excess market return. The interest rate factor is priced and seems to drive most of the explanatory power of the model. In this model, both value stocks and past long-term losers enjoy higher average (excess) returns because they have higher interest rate risk than growth/past winner stocks. The model significantly outperforms the nested models (capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and consumption CAPM (CCAPM)) and compares favorably with alternative macroeconomic models.

We test whether a bias exists in analyst recommendations for firms that file for bankruptcy during 1995–2001. We fail to find overoptimism in analyst recommendations, including those of affiliated analysts. Our multivariate analysis of the market reaction to changes in analyst recommendations indicates that prior affiliation exerts no impact on either returns or trading volume. We find that the market does not view recommendation upgrades by affiliated analysts as biased since there is no price reversal following these recommendation changes. Overall, our results suggest that recently passed legislation to reduce analysts' conflicts of interest might be an overreaction.

Firms in industry clusters have market prices that are more efficient than firms outside clusters. To establish causality, we analyze exogenous firm relocations and find that firms that relocate into industry clusters have higher levels of industry information in their prices. We argue that geographical proximity allows for information spillovers, reducing marginal cost to information producers. Our evidence supports this view: Analysts are more likely to cover stocks inside industry clusters, and when institutional investors have a large position in one stock in the industry cluster, they are more likely to hold other stocks in the same industry cluster.