We quantify what drives the rise in medical expenditures over the life-cycle using a stochastic dynamic overlapping generations model of health investment. Three motives for health investment are considered. First, health delivers a flow of utility each period (the consumption motive). Second, better health enables people to allocate more time to productive or pleasurable activities (the investment motive). Third, better health improves survival prospects (the survival motive). We find that, overall, the consumption motive plays a dominant role, whereas the investment motive is more important than the consumption and survival motives until the forties. The survival motive is quantitatively less important when compared to the other two motives. We also conduct a series of counter-factual policy experiments to investigate how government policies impacting health insurance coverage, Social Security, and health care technological progress affect the behavior of medical expenditures, and social welfare.

This paper analyzes optimal capital and labor income taxation for households differentiated by labor skill, income, and wealth, under a balanced government budget, over the business cycle. A model incorporating capital–skill complementarity in production and differential access to labor and capital markets is developed to capture the cyclical characteristics of the US economy, as well as the empirical observations on wage (skill premium) and wealth inequality. We find that optimal taxes for middle-income households are more volatile than the remaining taxes. Moreover, the government re-allocates the total tax burden in bad times so that the share of total tax revenue paid by middle-income households rises. This share also rises for low-income households but by significantly less, whereas the tax share for skilled households falls.

A challenge that faces many advanced economies is how to finance age-related spending programs as the population ages. In this paper, we investigate two policy options–pension cuts and tax hikes–to mitigate fiscal pressure arising in the special context of Australia, whose population is ageing fast while growing substantially in size due to immigration. Using a computable overlapping generations model, we find that while both policy reforms can achieve a similar fiscal goal, they lead to different distributional and welfare effects across income groups over time. Future generations prefer pension cuts, whereas current generations prefer tax hikes to finance government spending commitments. Moreover, within the tax hike option, taxing income or consumption results in opposing macroeconomic and welfare effects. Indeed, our opposing intra- and inter-temporal welfare outcomes highlight some political complexity when devising a more sustainable tax-transfer system.

This article aims at studying a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations that incorporates inherited tastes (aspirations) and endogenous longevity. The existence of standard-of-living aspirations transmitted between two subsequent generations in a context where the individual state of health depends on public investments in health has some remarkable consequences at the macroeconomic level. First, aspirations allow escaping from the well-known poverty trap scenario described by Chakraborty (2004). Second, the steady-state equilibrium may be destabilized through a super-critical Neimark–Sacker bifurcation when the health tax rate is set at too high or too low a level. This causes endogenous fluctuations in income and longevity.

This paper extends the existing theories of directed technical change by allowing the factors of production, skilled, and unskilled workers, to be employed in both the skill-intensive and unskilled-intensive sectors. Consequently, the direction of technical progress and the sectoral allocation of factors are jointly determined. The feedback between technical progress and the allocation of factors leads to new results concerning structural change and directed technical change. An increase in the endowment of a factor leads to a dynamic reallocation of factors toward the sector that uses the factor intensively. The reallocation of factors also affects the stability properties of directed technical change. When the parameter conditions necessary for strong bias are satisfied, the interior regime (nonspecialization) is at most locally stable. More importantly, if the relative endowment of skilled labor becomes too high (low), the economy necessarily specializes in the production of skilled (unskilled)-labor-intensive goods. Last, the relationship between the relative endowment of skilled labor and the steady-state relative wage rate is not necessarily monotonic.

This paper examines the relationship between environmental policy and growth when green preferences are endogenously determined by education and pollution. We consider an environmental policy in which the government implements a tax on pollution and recycles the revenue to fund pollution abatement activities and/or an education subsidy (influencing green behaviors). When the sensitivity of agents' environmental preferences to pollution and human capital is high, the economy can converge to a balanced growth path equilibrium with damped oscillations. We show that this environmental policy can both remove the oscillations, associated with intergenerational inequalities, and enhance the long-term growth rate. However, this solution requires that the revenue from the tax rate must be allocated to education and direct environmental protection simultaneously. We demonstrate that this type of mixed-instrument environment policy is an effective way to address environmental and economic issues in both the short and the long run.

Consumption Euler equations are important tools in empirical macroeconomics. When estimated on micro data, they are typically linearized, so standard IV or GMM methods can be employed to deal with the measurement error that is endemic to survey data. However, linearization, in turn, may induce serious approximation bias. We numerically solve and simulate six different life-cycle models, and then use the simulated data as the basis for a series of Monte Carlo experiments in which we evaluate the performance of linearized Euler equation estimation. We sample from the simulated data in ways that mimic realistic data structures. The linearized Euler equation leads to biased estimates of the EIS, but that bias is modest when there is a sufficient time dimension to the data, and sufficient variation in interest rates. However, a sufficient time dimension can only realistically be achieved with a synthetic cohort. Estimates from synthetic cohorts of sufficient length, while often exhibiting small mean bias, are quite imprecise. We also show that in all data structures, estimates are less precise in impatient models.

This paper develops an analytically tractable, two-country, two-traded-good dynamic general-equilibrium model of money to examine the long-run and short-run effects of a temporary change in the domestic inflation target on the trade pattern, the terms of trade, the foreign exchange rate, and the capital accumulation of each country and of the world economy. We find that such a temporary monetary innovation can generate permanent effects on the world distribution of capital and the pattern of trade, resulting in nonneutrality in an otherwise money-neutral cash-in-advance setting. This change also leads to very rich transitional dynamics that we fully characterize analytically. In particular, endogenous responses in transition can be monotone or nonmonotone and can exhibit over-shooting. Our analytic findings and quantitative results help explain some noticeable changes in the capital accumulation, output, and bilateral trade of several countries adopting inflation targeting. Since the permanent effects of a temporary change in the domestic inflation target on the pattern of international trade and the performance of the macroeconomy are driven by a new channel through the world distribution of capital, we add new insights to the literature.

By considering a simple endogenous growth model, we propose a new theoretical channel through which the presence of asset bubbles can promote economic growth. In the model economy, long-lived value-maximizing firms continuously improve the quality of their specific products through in-house research and development (R&D), while simultaneously new firms enter into the market. The key feature is endogenous market structure: The number of firms is endogenously determined, which leads to variation in firm size measured in terms of the scale of production at the level of an individual firm. The presence of asset bubbles unambiguously gives rise to larger firms. This allows in-house R&D expenditure to be spread over the greater numbers of goods that the firms produce, which can increase incentives to undertake in-house R&D.

This paper presents a Ramsey-like dynamic small open economy with endogenous labor migration. In the model, the domestic economy is free to borrow or lend as much as it wants at the given world interest rate, and individuals are supposed to be free to move from a country to another in response to the emergence of a wage differential between countries. Our analysis can be ideally split in two parts. Initially, we propose a baseline model in which only natives are allowed to save and invest in capital assets and traded bonds, whereas immigrants are credit constrained. Next, we provide an extension in which all individuals, including immigrants, have full access to international financial markets. We find that the steady state is always local indeterminate, and that the adjustment dynamics of the competitive equilibrium is dependent upon the initial level of the immigration ratio.

The flow utility of unemployment plays a crucial role in labor search and matching models. Recent evidence by Chodorow-Reich and Karabarbounis suggests that the flow utility is high on average, volatile, and strongly procyclical. Taken together, these facts imply that labor search and matching models perform worse than prevailing conventional wisdom. In contrast, we build a model where unemployed workers choose between home production and job search. Procyclical job search implies that the effective unemployment benefit is countercyclical. Our results suggest that omitting endogenous search will upwardly bias the measured correlation between effective unemployment benefits and productivity.

This study examines the effects of borrowing for public services that increase households' utility (i.e., utility-generating government services) in an AK endogenous growth model. We assume that the government has a target debt ratio. The European Union and the United Kingdom adopt such debt policy rules. We find that application of a debt policy rule into utility-generating government spending causes indeterminacy of the transition path. We point out that the level of the target debt ratio, the tax rate, and the household utility parameters are important determinants of indeterminacy when considering utility-generating government services.

This paper investigates the effect of financial shocks using a general equilibrium model that links the firm's flows of financing with labor market variables. The results show that financial shocks have sizeable effects on debt, dividend payout, and wages. Shocks to the job destruction rate are important in explaining fluctuations in unemployment. The analysis also investigates the underlying driving forces of some key comovements in the data and finds shocks to the job destructions rate important.

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature, which is in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values under RE. Positive effects of fiscal policy are demonstrated during times of economic stress like the recent Great Recession. Finally, it is shown how learning can lead to consumption and investment dynamics empirically documented during some episodes of “fiscal consolidations.”

This paper introduces a new measure to capture dynamic losses for exporting firms on markets that exhibit hysteresis on the supply side. Our indicator aims to quantify dynamic losses caused by sunk adjustment costs in case of exchange rate fluctuations. While the standard procedure in welfare analysis is to compare two equilibria, we focus on welfare effects that take place during dynamics. We analyze negative dynamic effects on producers' income that are generated due to writing off sunk adjustment costs. As an example, we investigate Italian wine exports to the United States over the period 1995–2013. After testing for hysteresis on the market, we present the indicator of hysteresis losses. It captures a continuous increase of dynamic losses during the period 2003–2008. Moreover, over-proportionately large hysteresis losses are generated in comparison to the exchange rate changes if the pain threshold of the exchange rate (ca. 1.25$/€) is passed.

This paper shows how fiscal policy affects unemployment in a New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions and distortionary taxation. The model is estimated using US data that includes labor market flows and distinct fiscal instruments. Several findings stand out. First, unemployment multipliers for spending and consumption tax cuts are substantial, even though output multipliers turn out to be less than one. Second, multipliers for labor tax cuts are small. Third, fiscal rules enhance the positive effects of discretionary fiscal policy. However, these expansionary effects on the multipliers are modest compared to earlier studies.

In an exogenous-growth economy with overlapping generations, the Cobb–Douglas production, any positive life-cycle productivity, and time-separable constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility, we analyze local stability of a balanced growth equilibrium (BGE) with respect to changes in consumption endowments, which could be interpreted as a transfer policy. We show that generically, in the space of parameters, equilibria around a BGE are locally unique and are locally differentiable functions of endowments, with derivatives given by kernels. Furthermore, those equilibria are stable in the sense that the effects of temporary changes decay exponentially toward ±∞.

This paper introduces structural VAR analysis as a tool for investigating the anchoring of inflation expectations. We show that US consumers' inflation expectations are anchored in the long run because macro-news shocks are long-run neutral for long-term inflation expectations. The identification of structural shocks helps to explain why inflation expectations deviate from the central bank's target. Our results indicate that the recent decline in long-term inflation expectations does not result from deanchoring macro-news but can be attributed to downward adjustments in consumers' expectations about the central bank's inflation target.

I revisit the popular concern over a nonlinearity or threshold in the relationship between public debt and growth employing long time series data from up to 27 countries. My empirical approach recognizes that standard time series arguments for long-run equilibrium relations between integrated variables (cointegration) break down in nonlinear specifications such as those predominantly applied in the existing debt–growth literature. Adopting the novel cosummability approach, my analysis overcomes these difficulties to find no evidence for a systematic long-run relationship between debt and growth in the bivariate and economic theory-based multivariate specifications popular in this literature.

We adopt mechanism design to study the effects of inflation on output, trade, and capital accumulation. Our theory captures multiple channels for individuals to respond to inflation: search intensity, market participation, and substitution between money and a higher return asset. We characterize constrained efficient allocations and show inflation has nonmonotonic effects on the frequency of trades (extensive margin) and the total quantity traded (intensive margin). The model features monetary superneutrality for low inflation rates, nonlinearities in trading frequencies, and substitution of money for capital for higher inflation rates. While these effects are difficult to capture in previous models, we show how they are intimately related by all being features of an optimal trading mechanism.