Emerging infections pose a constant threat to society and can require a substantial response, thus systems to assess the threat level and inform prioritization of resources are essential. A systematic approach to assessing the risk from emerging infections to public health in the UK has been developed. This qualitative assessment of risk is performed using algorithms to consider the probability of an infection entering the UK population, and its potential impact, and to identify knowledge gaps. The risk assessments are carried out by a multidisciplinary, cross-governmental group of experts working in human and animal health. This approach has been piloted on a range of infectious threats identified by horizon scanning activities. A formal risk assessment of this nature should be considered for any new or emerging infection in humans or animals, unless there is good evidence that the infection is neither a recognized human disease nor a potential zoonosis.

We studied the age-specific population-based incidence of bacterial enteric infections caused by Shigella, Salmonella and Campylobacter, in Jerusalem. During 1990–2008, 32 408 cases were reported (incidence rate 232·1/100 000 per annum). The patterns of Shigella (47·4% of cases), Salmonella (34·4%) and Campylobacter (18·2%) infections evolved noticeably. Campylobacter rates increased from 15·0 to 110·8/100 000 per annum. Salmonella rates increased from 74·2 to 199·6/100 000 in 1995 then decreased to 39·4/100 000. Shigella showed an endemic/epidemic pattern ranging between 19·7 and 252·8/100 000. Most patients (75%) were aged <15 years; children aged <5 years comprised 56·4% of cases, despite accounting for only 12·9% of the population. Campylobacter was the predominant organism in infants aged <1 year and Shigella in the 1–4 years group. The hospitalization rates were: Shigella, 1·8%; Campylobacter, 2·3%; Salmonella, 6·9%. Infants were 2·2 times more likely to be hospitalized than children aged 1–14 years (P=0·001). Household transmission occurred in 21·2% of Shigella cases compared with 5% in the other bacteria.

The effects of temperature on reported cases of a number of foodborne illnesses in England and Wales were investigated. We also explored whether the impact of temperature had changed over time. Food poisoning, campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, Salmonella Typhimurium infections and Salmonella Enteritidis infections were positively associated (P<0·01) with temperature in the current and previous week. Only food poisoning, salmonellosis and S. Typhimurium infections were associated with temperature 2–5 weeks previously (P<0·01). There were significant reductions also in the impact of temperature on foodborne illnesses over time. This applies to temperature in the current and previous week for all illness types (P<0·01) except S. Enteritidis infection (P=0·079). Temperature 2–5 weeks previously diminished in importance for food poisoning and S. Typhimurium infection (P<0·001). The results are consistent with reduced pathogen concentrations in food and improved food hygiene over time. These adaptations to temperature imply that current estimates of how climate change may alter foodborne illness burden are overly pessimistic.

In 2006, in The Netherlands, an outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium phage type 561 (STM DT7, corresponding to the rare DT7 in the international typing scheme) was detected, accumulating to over 200 cases. By telephone interviews, data were collected from all laboratory-confirmed cases. In addition, in August 2006, a case-control study was performed in a subset of cases. Environmental and microbiological investigation was performed on a suspected dairy farm. In the case-control study (51 cases, 105 matched controls), hard cheese purchased from a farm, specifically farm X, and from a market stall were found to be associated with infection. The dairy production room of farm X tested STM DT7-positive in August. However, it was only in November, after earlier unsuccessful attempts, that a low-level contamination was confirmed in the hard farmhouse cheese, triggering control measures. A timely and adequate response was hampered during this outbreak for several reasons. Measures for improvement in handling future similar incidents are discussed.

We investigated the percentage of dogs that could be vaccinated against rabies by conducting a pilot campaign in N'Djaména, Chad. Owners were charged US$4.13 per dog vaccinated, and 24% of all dogs in the three city districts covered by the campaign were vaccinated. Total campaign costs were US$7623, resulting in an average of US$19.40 per vaccinated dog. This is five times more expensive than the cost per animal vaccinated during a previous free vaccination campaign for dog-owners, conducted in the same districts. The free campaign, which vaccinated 2605 more dogs than this campaign, cost an additional US$1.45 per extra dog vaccinated. Campaigns in which owners are charged for vaccinations result in lower vaccination rates than in free campaigns. Public health officials can use these results when evaluating the costs and benefits of subsidizing dog rabies vaccination programmes.

The prevalence of Bartonella infection was studied in 312 cats and 350 dogs in the Bangkok metropolitan areas, Thailand, between June 2001 and February 2003. Bartonella was isolated from 47 (16·3%) of 288 stray cats, but from none of the 24 pet cats studied. Of the 47 Bartonella-positive cats, 45 animals were infected with only B. henselae, one was infected with only B. clarridgeiae, and one with both B. henselae and B. clarridgeiae. 16S rRNA typing showed that 40 cats were infected with B. henselae type I, four with B. henselae type II, and one with both B. henselae types I and II. These results indicated that B. henselae, especially type I, was prevalent in stray cats that constituted a large Bartonella reservoir in Bangkok. B. clarridgeiae was isolated for the first time in Asia from one of 350 dogs.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) can cause serious disease in human beings. Ruminants are considered to be the main reservoir of human STEC infections. However, STEC have also been isolated from other domestic animals, wild mammals and birds. We describe a cross-sectional study of wild birds in northern England to determine the prevalence of E. coli-containing genes that encode Shiga toxins (stx1 and stx2) and intimin (eae), important virulence determinants of STEC associated with human disease. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified unique risk factors for the occurrence of each virulence gene in wild bird populations. The results of our study indicate that while wild birds are unlikely to be direct sources of STEC infections, they do represent a potential reservoir of virulence genes. This, coupled with their ability to act as long-distance vectors of STEC, means that wild birds have the potential to influence the spread and evolution of STEC.

This study was undertaken to detect Trypanosoma evansi infection in clinically ill cattle, buffaloes and horses that were suspected of ‘surra’ infection. Various diagnostic tests were utilized in order to assess the prevalence of infection in the clinically ill and ‘suspected’ animals. Animals in the Eastern Region of India were systematically studied for T. evansi infection, which had not been tested for previously. Examination of Giemsa-stained blood smears detected 5·3%, 9·4% and 40·6% infections; the mouse inoculation test detected 18·4%, 15·6% and 46·9% infections whereas an in-house ELISA detected anti-trypanosomal antibodies in 42·1%, 43·8% and 65·6% infections in clinically ill buffaloes, cattle and horses, respectively. It can be concluded that T. evansi is prevalent in cattle, buffaloes and horses in the Eastern Region of India.

Earlier studies on the ecology of leptospirosis in temperate regions focused mainly on free-ranging rats in rural areas. Here we report on the occurrence of Leptospira spp. in Rattus norvegicus living in sewers in a suburban area in Copenhagen, Denmark. In 2006–2007, about 30 rats were captured in sewers at each of six different locations. Rat kidneys were screened by PCR for pathogenic Leptospira spp. In one location no infected rats were found, whereas the prevalence in the remaining five locations ranged between 48% and 89%. Micro-agglutination tests showed that serogroup Pomona, Sejroe, and Icterohaemorrhagiae were the most common. Infection was related to age with the highest prevalence observed for adult rats but there was no difference in infection rate between sexes, suggesting primarily environmental transmission. Since most reported rat problems in urban areas are related to sewer rats, the surprisingly high level of infection calls for an increased public health concern.

In 2004, concurrent measles and rubella outbreaks occurred in four camps hosting 2767 Liberian refugees in Côte d'Ivoire. Sixty rash and fever cases were identified. From 19 January to 23 February 2004 (weeks 8–13), measles IgM testing showed that 61·1% were positive. The highest incidence rate (18·5%) of measles was observed in children aged <9 months. Ninety-three percent of children aged between 6 months and 15 years received a measles vaccine during week 13, but the rash and fever cases continued to occur. This prompted a systematic test for both measles and rubella IgM antibodies. Rubella IgM testing revealed 74·0% positive cases between 14 February and 25 April (weeks 11–21). The highest incidence rate (3·88%) of rubella was found in children aged between 5 and 15 years. Supplemental immunization with a measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine was conducted during week 20. This study illustrates the importance of testing for both measles and rubella in outbreaks of rash and fever in refugee settings.

Between October and December 2005, 16 cases of wound botulism were notified to the health authorities of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. All patients were injecting drug users (IDU) and the epidemiological investigations suggested contaminated injection drugs as the most probable source of infection. Clostridium botulinum was cultivated from clinical samples of six patients and molecular typing revealed that the different isolates were clonally identical. Two samples of heroin, one of them provided by a patient, were examined but C. botulinum could not be isolated. This outbreak demonstrates that IDU are at risk for acquiring wound botulism by injecting contaminated drugs. A greater awareness of this disease is needed by physicians and a close cooperation between public health authorities, street workers, operators of sheltered injecting facilities, and medical centres focusing on IDU is essential to prevent and manage outbreaks in IDU in a timely manner.

The high morbidity and mortality of necrotizing fasciitis (NF) supports the need for epidemiological studies to characterize the disease and identify patient factors associated with adverse outcomes. A multi-site medical record review of patients diagnosed with NF was performed (n=80, mortality 15%). Variables collected were hypothesized to have association with adverse outcomes from NF, and multivariable analysis was used to detect any such association in this population. Select factors associated with mortality included evidence of underlying conditions (P=0·002), advanced age (P=0·04), young age (P=0·03), and evidence of sepsis (P=0·006). Select factors associated with amputation included diabetes mellitus (P=0·006), evidence of underlying conditions (P=0·03), and cutaneous gangrene noted on admission (P=0·006). These findings demonstrate the important association of NF and extremes of age with mortality and morbidity and support the value of early suspicion with prompt diagnosis and treatment in order to prevent adverse outcomes since the associated risk factors are not immediately modifiable.

Legionnaires' disease (LD) is a major cause of severe community-acquired pneumonia but the source and mode of transmission are not always apparent, especially in sporadic cases. We hypothesized that LD can be acquired from the air-conditioning systems of motor cars. Swabs were taken from the evaporator compartments of the air-conditioning system of scrapped cars. Healthy subjects who were mainly employees of regional transportation companies were tested for antibody to Legionella pneumophila serogroups 1–6; they also completed a questionnaire. Legionella species were detected in 11/22 scrapped cars by the loop-mediated isothermal amplification method. The prevalence of microplate agglutination titres ⩾1:32 was significantly higher in subjects who sometimes used car air-conditioning systems. Although we did not prove a direct link between Legionella spp. in the car evaporator and LD, our findings point to a potential risk of car air-conditioning systems in LD, which needs further investigation.

Since 2003, Connecticut laboratories have reported Gram-positive rod (GPR) isolates detected within 32 h of inoculation from blood or cerebrospinal fluid. The objectives were to rapidly identify inhalational anthrax and unusual Clostridium spp. infections, and to establish round-the-clock laboratory reporting of potential indicators of bioterrorism. From 2003 to 2006, Connecticut's GPR surveillance system identified 1134 isolates, including 657 Bacillus spp. (none B. anthracis) and 241 Clostridium spp. Reporting completeness and timeliness improved to 93% and 92%, respectively. Baseline rates of Bacillus spp., Clostridium spp. and other GPR findings have been established and are stable. Thus far, no cases of anthrax and no unusual clusters of Clostridium spp. have been detected by the GPR surveillance system. This system would probably have confirmed the inhalational anthrax case in Pennsylvania in 2006 3 days sooner than traditional reporting. Using audits and ongoing evaluation, the system has evolved into a highly functional 24/7 laboratory telephone reporting system with almost complete reporting.

To identify determinants for mortality and sequelae and to analyse the spatial distribution of meningococcal disease, we linked four national Danish registries. In the period 1974–2007, 5924 cases of meningococcal disease were registered. Our analysis confirms known risk factors for a fatal meningococcal disease outcome, i.e. septicaemia and high age (>50 years). The overall case-fatality rate was 7·6%; two phenotypes were found to be associated with increased risk of death; C:2a:P1.2,5 and B:15:P1.7,16. B:15:P1.7,16 was also associated with excess risk of perceptive hearing loss. The incidence rates of meningococcal disease were comparable between densely and less densely populated areas, but patients living further from a hospital were at significantly higher risk of dying from the infection. To improve control of meningococcal disease, it is important to understand the epidemiology and pathogenicity of virulent ‘successful clones’, such as C:2a:P1.2,5 and B:15:P1.7,16, and, eventually, to develop vaccines against serogroup B.

New Zealand has a higher reported incidence of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis than most other developed countries. This study aimed to describe and compare the epidemiology of these infections in New Zealand, to better understand their impact on public health and to gain insight into their probable modes of transmission. We analysed cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis notification data for a 10-year period (1997–2006). Highest rates for both diseases were in Europeans, children aged 0–5 years, and those living in low-deprivation areas. Cryptosporidiosis distribution was consistent with mainly farm animal (zoonotic) reservoirs. There was a dose–response relationship with increasing grades of rurality, marked spring seasonality, and positive correlation with farm animal density. Giardiasis distribution was consistent with predominantly human (anthroponotic) reservoirs, with an important contribution from overseas travel. Further research should focus on methods to reduce transmission of Cryptosporidium in rural areas and on reducing anthroponotic transmission of Giardia.

Tri-County Health Department investigated an outbreak of cryptosporidiosis linked to a community swimming pool. A cohort study was conducted in 37 persons who were invited to the pool party; 12 (57%) of 21 attendees had primary cryptosporidiosis infection. Risk factors for illness included swimming, getting water in mouth, and swallowing water. The pool met chlorination guidelines and used UV light irradiation, a supplemental disinfection technology that inactivates Cryptosporidium. A follow-up survey of the cohort was completed 7–8 weeks after the pool party; four (25%) of 16 non-attendees had secondary cryptosporidiosis infection. The median duration of illness, including patients with recurring symptoms, was 26 days. Clinical response rate to nitazoxanide, a therapeutic agent, was 67%. This study is unique because it describes a cryptosporidiosis outbreak from a well-maintained community swimming pool using supplemental disinfection. It also reports information on disease burden and treatment response.

Two independent studies were conducted to describe symptoms and potential risk factors associated with Blastocystis infection. Isolates were subtyped by molecular analysis. In the NORMAT study (126 individuals randomly sampled from the general population) 24 (19%) were positive for Blastocystis. Blastocystis was associated with irritable bowel syndrome (P=0·04), contact with pigs (P<0·01) and poultry (P=0·03). In the Follow-up (FU) study (follow-up of 92 Blastocystis-positive patients), reports on bloating were associated with subtype (ST) 2 (P<0·01), and blood in stool to mixed subtype infection (P=0·06). ST1 was more common in FU individuals (32%) than in NORMAT individuals (8%), whereas single subtype infections due to ST3 or ST4 were seen in 63% of the NORMAT cases and 28% of the FU cases. Only FU individuals hosted ST7, and ST6/7 infections due to ST7 or ST9 were characterized by multiple intestinal symptoms. The data indicate subtype-dependent differences in the clinical significance of Blastocystis.