We develop an empirical model of bilateral exchange rates. It includes normal shocks with stochastic variance and jumps in an exchange rate and in its variance. The probability of a jump in an exchange rate corresponding to depreciation (appreciation) of the U.S. dollar is increasing in the domestic (foreign) interest rate. The probability of a jump in variance is increasing in the variance only. Jumps in exchange rates are associated with announcements; jumps in variance are not. On average, jumps account for 25% of currency risk. The dollar carry index retains these features. Options suggest that jump risk is priced.

The standard models of consumer behavior under uncertainty are the expected utility model and the mean-variance model. As with any models involving unobservables one might well ask about the empirical content of these hypotheses: what restrictions on observed behavior do these models impose? How can one test observed behavior for consistency with these models? How can one recover the underlying utility function and forecast behavior in new situations?

This study analyzes bid-ask spreads surrounding announcements of open-market share repurchase programs for a sample of 248 announcements of repurchase programs by NYSE firms over the period January 1984 through June 1988. The sample includes 158 announcements of new programs and 90 announcements regarding continuations of already existing programs. Contrary to the theory that spreads increase surrounding the announcement of open-market share repurchase programs, with both univariate and multivariate tests that control for changes in volume, changes in stock price volatility, and changes in the level of stock price, we find no evidence of an increase in spreads surrounding announcements of open-market share repurchase programs.

Recent empirical studies have indicated that spin-offs are value enhancing, yet the theoretical aspects of spin-off gains have not been as well explored. This paper presents a theoretical analysis of spin-offs. In the model of the firm presented, outstanding risky debt gives rise to agency costs of underinvestment, which are offset by the benefit of debt-related tax shields. The trade-off specifies the optimal leverage for a firm. Within this framework, the paper considers whether and under what circumstances firm value could be enhanced by a spin-off. It is shown that a spin-off in which parent company debt is optimally allocated between the post-spin-off firms increases value by reducing agency costs and increasing the value of tax shields when the component firm cash flows are positively correlated. The optimal allocation is characterized in terms of the parameters of the technologies of the component firms. When the component cash flows are negatively correlated, under the sufficient conditions developed, a combined firm operation dominates spin-offs. Here, the coinsurance effect on investment incentives dominates the effect of a flexible allocation of debt across technologies in a spin-off.

The 4 equity market factors from Fama and French (1993) and Carhart (1997) are pervasive in academia and practice. However, not much is known about their joint distribution and dynamics. We find striking evidence of asymmetric tail dependence across the factors. While the linear factor correlations are small and even negative, the extreme correlations are large and positive, so that the linear correlations drastically overstate the benefits of diversification across the factors. We model the nonlinear factor dependence dynamics and explore their economic importance in a portfolio allocation experiment showing that significant economic value is earned when acknowledging nonlinear dependence.

This paper examines heterogeneity in blockholder monitoring across investor types. We document which blockholder types (e.g., mutual funds, hedge funds) are more likely to be associated with active monitoring and show that firms targeted by such blockholders are more likely to increase the equity portion of chief executive officer (CEO) pay. Further, using market-wide and exogenous shocks to liquidity to identify differences in efficacy across blockholder types, we observe greater operating-performance improvements in actively monitored firms when passive monitoring is less effective, suggesting causal impact. We propose differences in compensation arrangements across blockholder types as a mechanism underlying blockholders’ heterogeneous role.

Events that disrupt customer–supplier relationships pose a source of risk for suppliers that depend on a customer for a large portion of their revenues. We identify the replacement of a customer’s chief executive officer (CEO) as a disruptive event that results in suppliers losing substantial sales. These losses are greater when an incumbent customer CEO is more likely to be entrenched and stem largely from the successor divesting assets. Finally, we document that losses in sales following a customer CEO turnover lead to declines in a supplier’s financial performance and that suppliers experience negative abnormal stock returns to announcements of customer CEO departures.

This paper considers the pricing of multiclass commercial mortgage-backed securities. A contingent-claims pricing methodology that overcomes state variable dimensionality problems is developed to examine mortgage pools with many distinct underlying assets and whose loan cash flow values are subject to interest rate uncertainty. Security structure and the correlation structure of collateralizing assets within a pool are found to be important determinants of tranche price and required yield spread. By disentangling default loss risk from default-related call risk, we show it is possible that mezzanine investment classes may require lower yield spreads than higher priority investment classes. Of particular interest is the finding that reduced cash flow volatility obtained through pool diversification may actually decrease the value of the first-loss (junior) tranche. When examining the relationship of pool size and tranche value, we find that five to 10 distinct mortgages are required to realize most of the effects of asset diversification.

Forecasts of financial prices, calculated from the present and past values, are never substantially more accurate than the prediction that future prices will equal the most recently observed price. This conclusion has been summarized by two hypotheses. First, the random walk hypothesis, states that daily returns are uncorrelated. Few people believe that this is exactly correct; indeed, the hypothesis has been refuted both for small stock markets [13] and for American commodity futures markets [3]. Second, the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, as defined by Jensen [15], states that investors cannot make profits from any correlation between returns, after deducting all the costs of trading and adjusting for risk. Strict efficiency, is a special case that occurs when prices fully reflect all information available in the past prices [7], [8].

How do corporate bond mutual funds manage liquidity to meet investor redemptions? We show that during tranquil market conditions, these funds tend to reduce liquid asset holdings to meet redemptions, temporarily increasing relative exposures to illiquid asset classes. When aggregate uncertainty rises, however, they tend to scale down their liquid and illiquid assets proportionally to preserve portfolio liquidity. This fund-level dynamic management of liquidity appears to affect the broad financial market: Redemptions from the corporate bond fund sector lead to more corporate bond selling during high-uncertainty periods, which generates price pressures and predicts strong return reversals.

Geske derived in [1] expressions for the values of junior and senior debt and equity. In this paper, some confusion about these expressions is cleared up, and an error is corrected. We use the same notation as in [1].

We conduct a comprehensive out-of-sample assessment of the economic value adding of commodities in multiasset investment strategies that exploit the predictability of asset return moments. We find that predictability makes the inclusion of commodities profitable even when short selling and high leverage are not permitted. For instance, a mean-variance (non-mean-variance) investor with moderate risk aversion and leverage, rebalancing quarterly, would be willing to pay up to 108 (155) basis points per year after transaction cost for adding commodities to her stock, bond, and cash portfolio. Previous research had reached mixed or even opposite conclusions, especially in an out-of-sample context.

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates how debt structure and strategic interaction among shareholders and debt holders in the event of default affect expected stock returns. The model predicts that expected stock returns are higher for firms that face high debt renegotiation difficulties and that have a large fraction of secured or convertible debt. Using a large sample of publicly traded U.S. firms for the period 1985–2012, the paper presents new evidence on the link between debt structure and stock returns that is supportive of the model’s predictions.

Patterns of clustering in IPO gross spreads can be identified not only in the U.S., but also in many other markets across the world. The evidence indicates, however, that these clustering patterns are not necessarily collusive. Clustering is widespread in many countries with low gross spreads. In fact, the amount of clustering observed is negatively related to the gross spread level of a country. Additionally, an analysis of abnormal gross spreads following Hansen (2001) indicates that few clusters contain abnormal positive surpluses.

I investigate what leads controlling families of publicly traded firms to sell their remaining ownership stake. The sale of a controlling stake is best explained in the context of theories of the firm related to optimal risk bearing, the separation of ownership and management expertise, the CEO succession process, and the monitoring provided by outside blockholders. A timing explanation is only marginally supported. The sale of a controlling stake is not explained by insufficient financial resources to fully invest in growth opportunities. This study offers insights into the final stage of the process in which entrepreneurs sequentially sell their firm to outside parties and also identifies the nature of costs of concentrated ownership.

Fund managers' bias toward geographically proximate securities is a well-researched phenomenon, yet the origins of managers' location choices have received little empirical scrutiny. This paper traces the employment and geographic heritage of 358 entrepreneurial fund managers and analyzes the determinants of where they locate their firms and stock selections. The evidence suggests that start-ups tend to be based close to the origins of their founders and in regions with more investment management firms, banking establishments, and large institutional money managers. New money managers show a strong local bias in their equity holdings, three times the levels previously documented for mutual funds. The propensity to invest closer to home correlates strongly with the presence of sub-advisory opportunities from institutional investors in the vicinity. While home bias levels between managers who relocate with their start-ups and the rest of the entrepreneurs are similar, preferences for stocks that were formally local persist.

We analyze a model in which firms signal their quality by using financial policies to commit to cash outflows. Two financial policies may be used: dividend and debt-service obligations. We find sufficient conditions for the informational equilibrium to entail concommitant use of both dividends and leverage in the cost-minimizing combination of the commitment signal. In this equilibrium, better firms pay higher dividends and are more highly levered than lower quality firms.

We apply methods designed to measure mutual fund skill to a cross section of funds that is unlikely to exhibit managerial portfolio selection skill: index funds. Surprisingly, these tests imply index fund skill exists, is persistent, and is in similar proportion as in active funds. We use the distribution of passive fund performance to gauge the incremental ability of active managers. Outperformance by top active funds is lower when benchmarked to the index fund distribution and disappears when we account for residual risk. Stochastic dominance tests suggest no risk-averse investor should choose a random active fund over a random index fund.

One striking feature of international portfolio investment is the extent to which equity portfolios are concentrated in the domestic equity market of the investor—the home bias puzzle. I examine the role of investors' perception of foreign investment risk on their portfolio choices. The expected returns and risk of foreign investment are specified through an asset pricing model with the home portfolio being the benchmark asset—Pastor's (2000) domestic CAPM. The model serves as a reference point around which investors can center their prior beliefs. I focus on investors' prior beliefs that are consistent with the literature on confidence in the familiar—foreign equities, in terms of both expected returns and risk, being viewed less favorably than domestic equities. These prior beliefs are then combined with the data on G7 equities, and the revised beliefs are used to obtain the global optimal asset allocation. To hold predominantly domestic equities, each G7 investor has to believe that the risk of foreign investment is several times higher than the actual risk. The home bias is more of a puzzle for a U.S. investor during the 1970s. Specifying investors' prior beliefs around the world CAPM does not help resolve the puzzle.

The concern of this paper is with the effects of insider trading on ex ante managerial behavior. Specifically, the paper focuses on how insider trading affects insiders' choice among investment projects. Other things equal, insider trading leads insiders to choose riskier investment projects, because increased volatility of results enables insiders to make greater trading profits if they learn these results in advance of the market. Thiseffect might be beneficial, however, because insiders' risk aversion pulls them toward aconservative investment policy. Insiders' choices of projects are identified and compared with insider trading and those without such trading. Using these results, the conditions under which insider trading increases or decreases corporate value by affecting the choice of projects with uncertain returns are identified.