Change-point analysis (CPA) is a well-established statistical method to detect abrupt changes, if any, in a sequence of data. In this paper, we propose a procedure based on CPA to detect test speededness. This procedure is not only able to classify examinees into speeded and non-speeded groups, but also identify the point at which an examinee starts to speed. Identification of the change point can be very useful. First, it informs decision makers of the appropriate length of a test. Second, by removing the speeded responses, instead of the entire response sequence of an examinee suspected of speededness, ability estimation can be improved. Simulation studies show that this procedure is efficient in detecting both speeded examinees and the speeding point. Ability estimation is dramatically improved by removing speeded responses identified by our procedure. The procedure is then applied to a real dataset for illustration purpose.

The conventional setup for multi-group structural equation modeling requires a stringent condition of cross-group equality of intercepts before mean comparison with latent variables can be conducted. This article proposes a new setup that allows mean comparison without the need to estimate any mean structural model. By projecting the observed sample means onto the space of the common scores and the space orthogonal to that of the common scores, the new setup allows identifying and estimating the means of the common and specific factors, although, without replicate measures, variances of specific factors cannot be distinguished from those of measurement errors. Under the new setup, testing cross-group mean differences of the common scores is done independently from that of the specific factors. Such independent testing eliminates the requirement for cross-group equality of intercepts by the conventional setup in order to test cross-group equality of means of latent variables using chi-square-difference statistics. The most appealing piece of the new setup is a validity index for mean differences, defined as the percentage of the sum of the squared observed mean differences that is due to that of the mean differences of the common scores. By analyzing real data with two groups, the new setup is shown to offer more information than what is obtained under the conventional setup.

Understanding beliefs, values, and preferences of patients is a tenet of contemporary health sciences. This application was motivated by the analysis of multiple partially ordered set (poset) responses from an inventory on layman beliefs about diabetes. The partially ordered set arises because of two features in the data—first, the response options contain a Don’t Know (DK) option, and second, there were two consecutive occasions of measurement. As predicted by the common sense model of illness, beliefs about diabetes were not necessarily stable across the two measurement occasions. Instead of analyzing the two occasions separately, we studied the joint responses across the occasions as a poset response. Few analytic methods exist for data structures other than ordered or nominal categories. Poset responses are routinely collapsed and then analyzed as either rank ordered or nominal data, leading to the loss of nuanced information that might be present within poset categories. In this paper we developed a general class of item response models for analyzing the poset data collected from the Common Sense Model of Diabetes Inventory. The inferential object of interest is the latent trait that indicates congruence of belief with the biomedical model. To apply an item response model to the poset diabetes inventory, we proved that a simple coding algorithm circumvents the requirement of writing new codes such that standard IRT software could be directly used for the purpose of item estimation and individual scoring. Simulation experiments were used to examine parameter recovery for the proposed poset model.

This paper focuses on the computation of asymptotic standard errors (ASE) of ability estimators with dichotomous item response models. A general framework is considered, and ability estimators are defined from a very restricted set of assumptions and formulas. This approach encompasses most standard methods such as maximum likelihood, weighted likelihood, maximum a posteriori, and robust estimators. A general formula for the ASE is derived from the theory of M-estimation. Well-known results are found back as particular cases for the maximum and robust estimators, while new ASE proposals for the weighted likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators are presented. These new formulas are compared to traditional ones by means of a simulation study under Rasch modeling.

There has been renewed interest in Barton and Lord’s (An upper asymptote for the three-parameter logistic item response model (Tech. Rep. No. 80-20). Educational Testing Service, 1981) four-parameter item response model. This paper presents a Bayesian formulation that extends Béguin and Glas (MCMC estimation and some model fit analysis of multidimensional IRT models. Psychometrika, 66 (4):541–561, 2001) and proposes a model for the four-parameter normal ogive (4PNO) model. Monte Carlo evidence is presented concerning the accuracy of parameter recovery. The simulation results support the use of less informative uniform priors for the lower and upper asymptotes, which is an advantage to prior research. Monte Carlo results provide some support for using the deviance information criterion and ${\mathit{\chi }}^2$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\chi ^{2}$$\end{document} index to choose among models with two, three, and four parameters. The 4PNO is applied to 7491 adolescents’ responses to a bullying scale collected under the 2005–2006 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children study. The results support the value of the 4PNO to estimate lower and upper asymptotes in large-scale surveys.

A first-order autoregressive growth model is proposed for longitudinal binary item analysis where responses to the same items are conditionally dependent across time given the latent traits. Specifically, the item response probability for a given item at a given time depends on the latent trait as well as the response to the same item at the previous time, or the lagged response. An initial conditions problem arises because there is no lagged response at the initial time period. We handle this problem by adapting solutions proposed for dynamic models in panel data econometrics. Asymptotic and finite sample power for the autoregressive parameters are investigated. The consequences of ignoring local dependence and the initial conditions problem are also examined for data simulated from a first-order autoregressive growth model. The proposed methods are applied to longitudinal data on Korean students’ self-esteem.

Psychologists often use latent transition analysis (LTA) to investigate state-to-state change in discrete latent constructs involving delinquent or risky behaviors. In this setting, latent-state-dependent nonignorable missingness is a potential concern. For some longitudinal models (e.g., growth models), a large literature has addressed extensions to accommodate nonignorable missingness. In contrast, little research has addressed how to extend the LTA to accommodate nonignorable missingness. Here we present a shared parameter LTA that can reduce bias due to latent-state-dependent nonignorable missingness: a parallel-process missing-not-at-random (MNAR-PP) LTA. The MNAR-PP LTA allows outcome process parameters to be interpreted as in the conventional LTA, which facilitates sensitivity analyses assessing changes in estimates between LTA and MNAR-PP LTA. In a sensitivity analysis for our empirical example, previous and current membership in high-delinquency states predicted adolescents’ membership in missingness states that had high nonresponse probabilities for some or all items. A conventional LTA overestimated the proportion of adolescents ending up in a low-delinquency state, compared to an MNAR-PP LTA.

Stevens’ power law for the judgments of sensation has a long history in psychology and is used in many psychophysical investigations of the effects of predictors such as group or condition. Stevens’ formulation $\mathit{\Psi }={aP}^n$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varPsi = {aP}^{n}$$\end{document}, where $\mathit{\Psi }$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varPsi $$\end{document} is the psychological judgment, P is the physical intensity, and $n$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$n$$\end{document} is the power law exponent, is usually tested by plotting log $(\mathit{\Psi })$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$(\varPsi )$$\end{document} against log (P). In some, but by no means all, studies, effects on the scale parameter, $a$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$a$$\end{document}, are also investigated. This two-parameter model is simple but known to be flawed, for at least some modalities. Specifically, three-parameter functions that include a threshold parameter produce a better fit for many data sets. In addition, direct non-linear computation of power laws often fit better than regressions of log-transformed variables. However, such potentially flawed methods continue to be used because of assumptions that the approximations are “close enough” as to not to make any difference to the conclusions drawn (or possibly through ignorance the errors in these assumptions). We investigate two modalities in detail: duration and roughness. We show that a three-parameter power law is the best fitting of several plausible models. Comparison between this model and the prevalent two parameter version of Stevens’ power law shows significant differences for the parameter estimates with at least medium effect sizes for duration.

Intensive longitudinal data provide rich information, which is best captured when specialized models are used in the analysis. One of these models is the multilevel autoregressive model, which psychologists have applied successfully to study affect regulation as well as alcohol use. A limitation of this model is that the autoregressive parameter is treated as a fixed, trait-like property of a person. We argue that the autoregressive parameter may be state-dependent, for example, if the strength of affect regulation depends on the intensity of affect experienced. To allow such intra-individual variation, we propose a multilevel threshold autoregressive model. Using simulations, we show that this model can be used to detect state-dependent regulation with adequate power and Type I error. The potential of the new modeling approach is illustrated with two empirical applications that extend the basic model to address additional substantive research questions.

The new software package OpenMx 2.0 for structural equation and other statistical modeling is introduced and its features are described. OpenMx is evolving in a modular direction and now allows a mix-and-match computational approach that separates model expectations from fit functions and optimizers. Major backend architectural improvements include a move to swappable open-source optimizers such as the newly written CSOLNP. Entire new methodologies such as item factor analysis and state space modeling have been implemented. New model expectation functions including support for the expression of models in LISREL syntax and a simplified multigroup expectation function are available. Ease-of-use improvements include helper functions to standardize model parameters and compute their Jacobian-based standard errors, access to model components through standard R $ mechanisms, and improved tab completion from within the R Graphical User Interface.

Nonlinear random coefficient models (NRCMs) for continuous longitudinal data are often used for examining individual behaviors that display nonlinear patterns of development (or growth) over time in measured variables. As an extension of this model, this study considers the finite mixture of NRCMs that combine features of NRCMs with the idea of finite mixture (or latent class) models. The efficacy of this model is that it allows the integration of intrinsically nonlinear functions where the data come from a mixture of two or more unobserved subpopulations, thus allowing the simultaneous investigation of intra-individual (within-person) variability, inter-individual (between-person) variability, and subpopulation heterogeneity. Effectiveness of this model to work under real data analytic conditions was examined by executing a Monte Carlo simulation study. The simulation study was carried out using an R routine specifically developed for the purpose of this study. The R routine used maximum likelihood with the expectation–maximization algorithm. The design of the study mimicked the output obtained from running a two-class mixture model on task completion data.

Decision making can be a complex process requiring the integration of several attributes of choice options. Understanding the neural processes underlying (uncertain) investment decisions is an important topic in neuroeconomics. We analyzed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from an investment decision study for stimulus-related effects. We propose a new technique for identifying activated brain regions: cluster, estimation, activation, and decision method. Our analysis is focused on clusters of voxels rather than voxel units. Thus, we achieve a higher signal-to-noise ratio within the unit tested and a smaller number of hypothesis tests compared with the often used General Linear Model (GLM). We propose to first conduct the brain parcellation by applying spatially constrained spectral clustering. The information within each cluster can then be extracted by the flexible dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) dimension reduction technique and finally be tested for differences in activation between conditions. This sequence of Cluster, Estimation, Activation, and Decision admits a model-free analysis of the local fMRI signal. Applying a GLM on the DSFM-based time series resulted in a significant correlation between the risk of choice options and changes in fMRI signal in the anterior insula and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex. Additionally, individual differences in decision-related reactions within the DSFM time series predicted individual differences in risk attitudes as modeled with the framework of the mean-variance model.

Standardized tests are frequently used for selection decisions, and the validation of test scores remains an important area of research. This paper builds upon prior literature about the effect of nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity on the accuracy of standard formulas for correcting correlations in restricted samples. Existing formulas for direct range restriction require three assumptions: (1) the criterion variable is missing at random; (2) a linear relationship between independent and dependent variables; and (3) constant error variance or homoscedasticity. The results in this paper demonstrate that the standard approach for correcting restricted correlations is severely biased in cases of extreme monotone quadratic nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity. This paper offers at least three significant contributions to the existing literature. First, a method from the econometrics literature is adapted to provide more accurate estimates of unrestricted correlations. Second, derivations establish bounds on the degree of bias attributed to quadratic functions under the assumption of a monotonic relationship between test scores and criterion measurements. New results are presented on the bias associated with using the standard range restriction correction formula, and the results show that the standard correction formula yields estimates of unrestricted correlations that deviate by as much as 0.2 for high to moderate selectivity. Third, Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that the new procedure for correcting restricted correlations provides more accurate estimates in the presence of quadratic and heteroscedastic test score and criterion relationships.

We extend dynamic generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) to enhance its data-analytic capability in structural equation modeling of multi-subject time series data. Time series data of multiple subjects are typically hierarchically structured, where time points are nested within subjects who are in turn nested within a group. The proposed approach, named multilevel dynamic GSCA, accommodates the nested structure in time series data. Explicitly taking the nested structure into account, the proposed method allows investigating subject-wise variability of the loadings and path coefficients by looking at the variance estimates of the corresponding random effects, as well as fixed loadings between observed and latent variables and fixed path coefficients between latent variables. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by applying the method to the multi-subject functional neuroimaging data for brain connectivity analysis, where time series data-level measurements are nested within subjects.