Consider the quadratic family $T_a(x) = a x (1 - x)$ for $x \in [0, 1]$ and mixing Collet–Eckmann (CE) parameters $a \in (2,4)$. For bounded $\varphi $, set $\tilde \varphi _{a} := \varphi - \int \varphi \, d\mu _a$, with $\mu _a$ the unique acim of $T_a$, and put $(\sigma _a (\varphi ))^2 := \int \tilde \varphi _{a}^2 \, d\mu _a + 2 \sum _{i>0} \int \tilde \varphi _{a} (\tilde \varphi _{a} \circ T^i_{a}) \, d\mu _a$. For any mixing Misiurewicz parameter $a_{*}$, we find a positive measure set $\Omega _{*}$ of mixing CE parameters, containing $a_{*}$ as a Lebesgue density point, such that for any Hölder $\varphi $ with $\sigma _{a_{*}}(\varphi )\ne 0$, there exists $\epsilon _\varphi>0$ such that, for normalized Lebesgue measure on $\Omega _{*}\cap [a_{*}-\epsilon _\varphi , a_{*}+\epsilon _\varphi ]$, the functions $\xi _i(a)=\tilde \varphi _a(T_a^{i+1}(1/2))/\sigma _a (\varphi )$ satisfy an almost sure invariance principle (ASIP) for any error exponent $\gamma>2/5$. (In particular, the Birkhoff sums satisfy this ASIP.) Our argument goes along the lines of Schnellmann’s proof for piecewise expanding maps. We need to introduce a variant of Benedicks–Carleson parameter exclusion and to exploit fractional response and uniform exponential decay of correlations from Baladi et al [Whitney–Hölder continuity of the SRB measure for transversal families of smooth unimodal maps. Invent. Math. 201 (2015), 773–844].

The binary contact path process (BCPP) introduced in Griffeath (1983) describes the spread of an epidemic on a graph and is an auxiliary model in the study of improving upper bounds of the critical value of the contact process. In this paper, we are concerned with limit theorems of the occupation time of a normalized version of the BCPP (NBCPP) on a lattice. We first show that the law of large numbers of the occupation time process is driven by the identity function when the dimension of the lattice is at least 3 and the infection rate of the model is sufficiently large conditioned on the initial state of the NBCPP being distributed with a particular invariant distribution. Then we show that the centered occupation time process of the NBCPP converges in finite-dimensional distributions to a Brownian motion when the dimension of the lattice and the infection rate of the model are sufficiently large and the initial state of the NBCPP is distributed with the aforementioned invariant distribution.

As a generalization of random recursive trees and preferential attachment trees, we consider random recursive metric spaces. These spaces are constructed from random blocks, each a metric space equipped with a probability measure, containing a labelled point called a hook, and assigned a weight. Random recursive metric spaces are equipped with a probability measure made up of a weighted sum of the probability measures assigned to its constituent blocks. At each step in the growth of a random recursive metric space, a point called a latch is chosen at random according to the equipped probability measure, and a new block is chosen at random and attached to the space by joining together the latch and the hook of the block. We use martingale theory to prove a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the insertion depth, the distance from the master hook to the latch chosen. We also apply our results to further generalizations of random trees, hooking networks, and continuous spaces constructed from line segments.

We investigate here the behaviour of a large typical meandric system, proving a central limit theorem for the number of components of a given shape. Our main tool is a theorem of Gao and Wormald that allows us to deduce a central limit theorem from the asymptotics of large moments of our quantities of interest.

The first part of this work is devoted to the study of higher derivatives of pressure functions of Hölder potentials on shift spaces with finitely many symbols. By describing the derivatives of pressure functions via the central limit theorem for the associated random processes, we discover some rigid relationships between derivatives of various orders. The rigidity imposes obstructions on fitting candidate convex analytic functions by pressure functions of Hölder potentials globally, which answers a question of Kucherenko and Quas. In the second part of the work, we consider fitting candidate analytic germs by pressure functions of locally constant potentials. We prove that all 1-level candidate germs can be realised by pressures of some locally constant potentials, as long as the number of symbols in the symbolic set is large enough. There are also some results on fitting 2-level germs by pressures of locally constant potentials obtained in the work.

The term moderate deviations is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between a convergence in probability of some random variables to a constant, and a weak convergence to a centered Gaussian distribution (when such random variables are properly centered and rescaled). We talk about noncentral moderate deviations when the weak convergence is towards a non-Gaussian distribution. In this paper we prove a noncentral moderate deviation result for the bivariate sequence of sums and maxima of independent and identically distributed random variables bounded from above. We also prove a result where the random variables are not bounded from above, and the maxima are suitably normalized. Finally, we prove a moderate deviation result for sums of partial minima of independent and identically distributed exponential random variables.

We establish higher moment formulae for Siegel transforms on the space of affine unimodular lattices as well as on certain congruence quotients of $\mathrm {SL}_d({\mathbb {R}})$. As applications, we prove functional central limit theorems for lattice point counting for affine and congruence lattices using the method of moments.

It is proven that a conjecture of Tao (2010) holds true for log-concave random variables on the integers: For every $n \geq 1$, if $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ are i.i.d. integer-valued, log-concave random variables, then

\begin{equation*} H(X_1+\cdots +X_{n+1}) \geq H(X_1+\cdots +X_{n}) + \frac {1}{2}\log {\Bigl (\frac {n+1}{n}\Bigr )} - o(1) \end{equation*}

$H(X_1) \to \infty$

$H(X_1)$

$U_1,\ldots,U_n$

$(0,1)$

\begin{equation*} h(X_1+\cdots +X_n + U_1+\cdots +U_n) = H(X_1+\cdots +X_n) + o(1), \end{equation*}

$H(X_1) \to \infty$

$h$

$o(1)$

Consider a well-shuffled deck of cards of n different types where each type occurs m times. In a complete feedback game, a player is asked to guess the top card from the deck. After each guess, the top card is revealed to the player and is removed from the deck. The total number of correct guesses in a complete feedback game has attracted significant interest in the past few decades. Under different regimes of m, n, the expected number of correct guesses, under the greedy (optimal) strategy, has been obtained by various authors, while there are not many results available about the fluctuations. In this paper we establish a central limit theorem with Berry–Esseen bounds when m is fixed and n is large. Our results extend to the case of decks where different types may have different multiplicity, under suitable assumptions.

Given a connected graph $H$ which is not a star, we show that the number of copies of $H$ in a dense uniformly random regular graph is asymptotically Gaussian, which was not known even for $H$ being a triangle. This addresses a question of McKay from the 2010 International Congress of Mathematicians. In fact, we prove that the behavior of the variance of the number of copies of $H$ depends in a delicate manner on the occurrence and number of cycles of $3,4,5$ edges as well as paths of $3$ edges in $H$. More generally, we provide control of the asymptotic distribution of certain statistics of bounded degree which are invariant under vertex permutations, including moments of the spectrum of a random regular graph. Our techniques are based on combining complex-analytic methods due to McKay and Wormald used to enumerate regular graphs with the notion of graph factors developed by Janson in the context of studying subgraph counts in $\mathbb {G}(n,p)$.

We study the distribution of the consensus formed by a broadcast-based consensus algorithm for cases in which the initial opinions of agents are random variables. We first derive two fundamental equations for the time evolution of the average opinion of agents. Using the derived equations, we then investigate the distribution of the consensus in the limit in which agents do not have any mutual trust, and show that the consensus without mutual trust among agents is in sharp contrast to the consensus with complete mutual trust in the statistical properties if the initial opinion of each agent is integrable. Next, we provide the formulation necessary to mathematically discuss the consensus in the limit in which the number of agents tends to infinity, and derive several results, including a central limit theorem concerning the consensus in this limit. Finally, we study the distribution of the consensus when the initial opinions of agents follow a stable distribution, and show that the consensus also follows a stable distribution in the limit in which the number of agents tends to infinity.

We study the coupon collector’s problem with group drawings. Assume there are n different coupons. At each time precisely s of the n coupons are drawn, where all choices are supposed to have equal probability. The focus lies on the fluctuations, as $n\to\infty$, of the number $Z_{n,s}(k_n)$ of coupons that have not been drawn in the first $k_n$ drawings. Using a size-biased coupling construction together with Stein’s method for normal approximation, a quantitative central limit theorem for $Z_{n,s}(k_n)$ is shown for the case that $k_n=({n/s})(\alpha\log(n)+x)$, where $0<\alpha<1$ and $x\in\mathbb{R}$. The same coupling construction is used to retrieve a quantitative Poisson limit theorem in the boundary case $\alpha=1$, again using Stein’s method.

One way to model telecommunication networks are static Boolean models. However, dynamics such as node mobility have a significant impact on the performance evaluation of such networks. Consider a Boolean model in $\mathbb {R}^d$ and a random direction movement scheme. Given a fixed time horizon $T>0$, we model these movements via cylinders in $\mathbb {R}^d \times [0,T]$. In this work, we derive central limit theorems for functionals of the union of these cylinders. The volume and the number of isolated cylinders and the Euler characteristic of the random set are considered and give an answer to the achievable throughput, the availability of nodes, and the topological structure of the network.

We establish central limit theorems for an action of a group $G$ on a hyperbolic space $X$ with respect to the counting measure on a Cayley graph of $G$. Our techniques allow us to remove the usual assumptions of properness and smoothness of the space, or cocompactness of the action. We provide several applications which require our general framework, including to lengths of geodesics in geometrically finite manifolds and to intersection numbers with submanifolds.

Motivated by recent studies of big samples, this work aims to construct a parametric model which is characterized by the following features: (i) a ‘local’ reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last observations, (ii) a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean, and (iii) a long-term almost sure convergence of the empirical mean to a deterministic limit, together with a chi-squared goodness-of-fit result for the limit probabilities. This triple purpose is achieved by the introduction of a new variant of the Eggenberger–Pólya urn, which we call the rescaled Pólya urn. We provide a complete asymptotic characterization of this model, pointing out that, for a certain choice of the parameters, it has properties different from the ones typically exhibited by the other urn models in the literature. Therefore, beyond the possible statistical application, this work could be interesting for those who are concerned with stochastic processes with reinforcement.

In this work the $\ell_q$ -norms of points chosen uniformly at random in a centered regular simplex in high dimensions are studied. Berry–Esseen bounds in the regime $1\leq q < \infty$ are derived and complemented by a non-central limit theorem together with moderate and large deviations in the case where $q=\infty$ . An application to the intersection volume of a regular simplex with an $\ell_p^n$ -ball is also carried out.